X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
Some red meat for @friedberg in Cembalest's latest (cc: @Jason @theallinpod) >"By 2030-2031, 100% of Federal tax revenues are projected by the CBO to be needed just to pay entitlements and interest on the Federal debt. Something may have to give by then, possibly after a riot in https://t.co/rCamOH
美国政府是在卖币么？关于这一点，@glxyresearch的这篇分析值得看看。Galaxy没有把这一波美国政府相关比特币转入Coinbase Prime写成已经卖出。他们前天的链上帖做的是来源拆解和持仓核算：确认币进了美国政府在Coinbase https://t.co/wEz4ub3CCJ 引用 @qinbafrank：关于大饼及加密的这一波调整原因是什么以及之后怎么看？个人应该是X比较早预警调整要来的，最早是9月28号聊到（引用的推文）：准备金已经回落，意味着流动性开始收紧9月中下特别是10月下旬需要谨慎、10月下旬可能是年内流动性的最低点，已经给这次一调整预警了。 https://t.
Korea is heading for a current account surplus of close to $500 billion this year -- That of course raises the question of how is the surplus being recycled. Korean purchases of US equities is definitely a big part of the answer, but no longer the entire answer 1/many https://t.co/R6Pq60XPjJ
Bottom -- very little has so far flowed into the US bond market (to fund either the borrowing to build the data centers that use the chips or the US fiscal deficit) ... but it isn't clear that the old equity outflows offsetting the surplus equilibrium will persist going forward
Equity outflows were almost the entire answer in the first half of the year (foreigners selling Korean stocks because of concentration limits/ Koreans buying foreign stocks) but not in July and August 2/ https://t.co/V1iKtMdXzi
昨晚30年期美债拍卖数据整体表现也是很不错的，超出市场预期，有效缓解了市场对美国长端美债需求疲软的担忧。具体拍卖数据如下： 1、得标利率 5.618%高于预发行利率（5.618%与预发行利率基本持平，未出现明显的尾部利差），创下2000年以来的最高水平，反映出投资者对长端美债要求较高的风险补偿。 引用 @qinbafrank：昨晚的十年期美债拍卖结果是一个好的信号： 1）美国390亿美元10年期国债拍卖中标收益率5.3%，低于预发行利率、即市场定价预期； 2）认购倍数2.77倍明显高于过去六次平卖平均的2.54倍； https://t.co/LTLpBuH9Bw
Correlation between 10y yield and S&P 500 remains deeply negative (more so when yields rise on the day) https://t.co/GnyMtCzoZX
房贷申请连续第五周下降，截至10月2日当周减少4.2%。30年期房贷利率升至7.49%，较前一周上升近20个基点，为近三年来最高水平。
Druck now. Bloomberg Bro Asymetric information The House. Arrogant prick in despair @SecScottBessent https://t.co/Ps8Vtz5VVA 引用 @RealNickMugalli：Treasury secretary Bessent confirms that Stan Druckenmiller lost a bunch of money like citadel securities shorting bonds… He also acknowledged his old s
As French yields continue to climb and pull other European yields higher, there's a question on many people's minds: What is the circuit breaker, and when does it kick in? Is it endogenous? If so, we are likely still a ways away from its trigger point, especially given how
Waller表示，他预计还需额外加息，以支持通胀更及时回到2%的目标。加息时间有一定灵活性，不必安排在连续会议，但应在可接受的时间内完成。
Year-ahead expectations for commodity price changes rose across the board in September according @NewYorkFed Survey of Consumer Expectations https://t.co/x4IjCDsvB8
Share of consumers expecting higher stock prices a year from now declined to 40.2% in September @NewYorkFed https://t.co/FElUqQmjKr
8月，消费者循环信贷余额下降48亿美元，降幅为2024年11月以来最大。循环信贷主要包括信用卡。
Financing costs rose in August … average interest rate on credit cards with assessed interest reached 22.36%; average interest rate on a 5-year new car loan rose to 7.54% https://t.co/rZQamsF40o
gm Brent crude ripping anew, now back above $105 from yesterday’s dalliance with sub-$100 https://t.co/ozSeo6O0Qk
On October 6, 2026, Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman gave remarks on modernizing regulation and supervision @stlouisfed: https://t.co/TdHpdx4GjV https://t.co/ubwQHalP7D
There are clearly some Fed policymakers who favor an unconditional higher policy path, but the center of the Committee remains focused on incoming data rather than pre-committing to further tightening. https://t.co/eq6vcf4ZRE
Initial jobless claims down to 197k vs. 200k est. & 199k prior; continuing claims at 1.716M vs. 1.700M est. & 1.699M prior … greatest increases in CA (+4.6k), IL (+1.2k), & NY (+1.0k); greatest decreases in HI (-0.3k), MI (-0.2k), & MD (-0.1k) https://t.co/sW75FYCuOk
美联储理事沃勒表示，市场定价反映美联储还将加息两次，但两次加息不必安排在连续会议上，应在可接受的时间内完成。文章还提到市场关注美联储点阵图。
美联储理事沃勒表示，若经济数据继续符合预期，他预计还会加息，以支持通胀更及时地回到2%的目标；他同时称，加息时点有一定灵活性。原文链接：https://t.co/rjvidGfLRW
现在油价和长债收益率跟股市就是个跷跷板，晚上油价上行带动长债收益率也向上，美股盘前也就跌。油价起来是因为三个点：川普再次威胁要在中期选举前升级、前两天这里https://t.co/1tbr0X9SiB聊到霍尔木兹海峡通过接驳转运恢复了大半但是转运成本很高导致油价很难下去、然后这两天因为飓风墨西哥湾25%的 https://t.co/Ctd7WzHeE1 引用 @qinbafrank：昨晚的美股债市总结下来就是一句话：弱非农把10月加息概率进一步压低，AI高beta继续主导市场，但债市给出的信号远没有股市乐观。这里的核心还是油价和长债收益率。 1、油价方面： 1）好的层面
美国初请失业金人数四周均值持平于57年来最低水平。作者称，截去峰值后更容易观察低谷，并表示这一曾长期用于衡量劳动力市场的指标显示当前劳动力市场可能是其有生之年最佳。
We’re in the middle of the most acute refined products market crisis in history and China is… … cutting cuts to fresh recent seasonal lows. https://t.co/E7vpk6vNJn 引用 @VKMacro：China refinery run rates are trending lower again for SOE. Where are we on imports? https://t.co/fUREB6DGS8
PODCAST: Great to talk with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer about the oil market, Iran, President Trump, and China. Spotify 🔉: https://t.co/PiC6w5OV5n Apple Podcast 🔉: https://t.co/Mao4AlL8XE Youtube 📺: https://t.co/CsZTFBsrp9 Substack 📄: https://t.co/AOQ3kFzqt3
The Trump administration said Thursday that it would suspend an immigration program for multiple tech firms, including Microsoft, alleging widespread abuse of a worker visa system https://t.co/9uAsxGpVLZ
全球贸易在2026年上半年展现出超出预期的韧性，但不同领域表现不一。服务贸易和部分地区更易受到中东冲突影响。
Bullish sentiment jumped to 40.3% vs. 34.6% in latest @AAIISentiment (week ending 10/7/26) while bearish sentiment declined sharply to 39.0% from 46.5% the prior week ... this week’s special question polls AAII members on allocating new cash https://t.co/VvsNHORes1
Brazilian stocks this year are up 40% (in dollar terms). Haven't been paying close attention to that market, but it must have a lot of AI stocks.
Let's hope that the use of gasoline / diesel online price-disclosure works better in the UK than it did in Chile, where it pushed prices higher (rather than undercut rivals, many gas stations matched their rivals' higher prices instead): https://t.co/69zTGrEYtF
Latest 3Q2026 real GDP estimate (a “nowcast,” not a forecast) from @AtlantaFed GDPNow model is +3.6% , down from October 6 prior read of +3.7% https://t.co/Q9OgM6Ykg2
Oil is up over 5% today courtesy of heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the looming threat of Hurricane Isaias [Past performance is no guarantee of future results] https://t.co/m9GpyVH9SS
美国9月非农就业人数基本持平。
沃勒从几周前呼吁“给通胀降温一个机会”，转为暗示可能进一步加息。他将此归因于能源价格上涨、AI建设规模扩大和更多关税。
美国总统特朗普称，华盛顿不会在11月3日美国中期选举前攻击伊朗。正文提出三种可能解释：美伊谈判正在进行、特朗普意在安抚德黑兰；这是一种转移注意力的策略，攻击仍可能发生；或是在对石油市场进行口头干预。
特朗普表示，美国在中期选举前任何时候都不会攻击伊朗。文章称，他可能意识到选前强硬言论推高了原油价格，并讽刺其言论是否可信。
Javier Blas 表示，波斯湾至远东航线的油运成本升至每日超过 140 万美元，图表纵轴因此再次上调。其他航线的运费也明显上涨；原文附有作者 9 月的评论文章：https://t.co/F71hgrvkBg
The @DallasFed tries to answer what’s behind high diesel prices? “Global refinery capacity has declined by as much as 10 percent amid mounting transportation challenges and geopolitical tensions.” https://t.co/6krbOSco3t
New in the Survey: Charting the Economy, Second Quarter 2026 https://t.co/IEBwarPtnM #SCB https://t.co/EPV3a2PM11
I so so so badly want this war to end, but imho it feels strategically unwise to broadcast in writing that you won’t attack the country with which you’ve been stuck in a months-long tit-for-tat