X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
克利夫兰联储主席 Beth Hammack 表示，投资者更多是根据他们认为美联储会做什么、而不是应该做什么来交易，这一观点与 Kevin Warsh 为追求更纯粹的市场信号而少谈前景的主张格格不入。 “曾在市场一侧 https://t.co/Bnf0fqYoGN 原文： Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said investors trade more on what they think the Fed will do than one what it should do, a view that sits uneasily with Kevin
So read Katie Martin (in the FT), read the PBOC's statement and read Mark Sobel's rebuttal 6/ https://t.co/tw5Ny6xt6Z
Inverse correlation between 10y yield and S&P 500 persists https://t.co/B25HJxdFMu
9月NFIB小企业乐观指数降至97.9，低于98.2的预期和98.7的前值，也略低于98.0的52周均值。指数10个分项中，6项下降、3项上升、1项持平。
Labor quality was cited as @NFIB single most important problem in September for third straight month, rising 3pp to 26%, followed by inflation and poor sales https://t.co/QBIo81l0c1
Buying conditions for vehicles, houses and large household durables sank in latest @UMich Consumer Sentiment Survey, largely due to higher prices and borrowing costs https://t.co/whULI1VjQr
Since the start of the current bull market on Oct. 12, 2022, the S&P 500 has seen 124 new all-time closing highs (note lone record high in 2022 occurred on Jan. 3, prior to the start of the bull market) https://t.co/wBkFucEDIA
IMF预测，发达经济体今年净借款将达GDP的5.2%，为2021年以来最高。IMF预测中国和美国2026年赤字将达到或超过GDP的8%。
CHART OF THE DAY: Economic pain alone may force Tehran -- or may not -- into softening its red lines. I don't know. What we know is the pain is very real. According to new IMF estimates, Iran will suffer in 2026 the biggest GDP contraction in nearly 40 years, down 7.6% y-on-y. https://t.co/V193k2Mv8
沙特向OPEC报告，9月原油产量升至约840万桶/日，为战争开始以来最高水平。
Kicking off Day 3 at #NABE2026 with @NelaRichardson discussing the shifting AI and talent paradigm focusing on how AI is shaping the demand for « tasks » — great collaboration between @ADP and @DigEconLab https://t.co/wv2MPndpST
Hiring slowed marginally for the first time in eight weeks with private payrolls adding an average of 24,750 jobs for four-weeks ending Sep. 26 per @adpresearch https://t.co/XkVIvgPTFI
Fascinating geopolitical discussion with @anna_rosenberg & @ConstanceHunter moderated by Tani Fukui. « Welcome to a « low-trust » anarchic multipolar world » #NABE2026 https://t.co/qmCGRgG5bh
IMF最新《世界经济展望》预计全球经济2026年增长3.1%，高于7月预计的3.0%；2027年预计增长3.4%，与7月预测持平。
India mulls even more coal-fired power generation (The country is the world's 2nd largest coal consumer, only behind China, accounting for ~15% of global demand) https://t.co/6ZJkqapFGM
美国9月成屋销售环比增长1.5%，高于预期的下降0.8%；前值由下降3.2%下修至下降2.0%。9月成屋中位房价同比上涨1.3%至417,500美元。https://t.co/3xtGsVCWNL
CFTC staff analyzing oil trades for insider trading around the U.S.-Iran war were told to retract their referral to the agency's enforcement division | h/t @CGorrivan https://t.co/YdN6lVAXC7
Quits rate 3.5 percent in accommodation and food services, August 2026 https://t.co/XEUB0FZns5 #BLSdata https://t.co/n7GKMYAsIH
Williams: "There are scenarios where the economy evolves in a way that you would need to have a higher path of interest rates to best achieve best achieve our goals. There’s also, I would say, equally there are future paths of the economy that would say that you don’t need to do
纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯在接受彭博采访时表示，他仍预计今年可能再加息一次；对于2027年的安排，他说还要视情况判断。https://t.co/Iuf2o0NVbE
作者称，UKMTO今日报告霍尔木兹海峡又有两起航运袭击，使其自9月30日起在霍尔木兹海峡及紧邻海域确认的袭击累计达到24起。原文链接：https://t.co/8OCgmnL3Bj
纽约港柴油相对布伦特原油的柴油裂解价差今天单日上涨 12 美元/桶，回到 100 美元/桶上方。作者称，这一增量约相当于通常柴油裂解价差的 50%，并将当前油市形容为波动异常。https://t.co/sQDWdAchfB
布伦特原油近月价差和DFL今日下跌，显示其他条件不变时原油市场趋于宽松；与此同时，柴油价格再度大幅上涨。纽约港柴油裂解价差（相对于布伦特）单日上涨12美元/桶，升至100美元/桶以上，约相当于正常柴油裂解价差的50%。
Rory Johnston称，UKMTO当天报告霍尔木兹海峡发生另外两起航运袭击，使其自9月30日以来在霍尔木兹及紧邻区域确认的袭击总数达到24起。他表示，向UKMTO报告是自愿的，通常上报较慢，且无法确认时不会报告；在误报较多的情况下，确认清单记录了袭击数量。 https://t.co/8OCgmnL3Bj
沙特确认，沙特阿美位于达兰的一栋行政大楼遭到袭击并起火。达兰是沙特阿美总部所在地，园区内有多栋建筑和封闭式住宅社区，但没有石油生产设施。
IMF在中东战争持续8个多月的背景下基本维持全球经济增长预测，并称全球经济再次显示出韧性。美国GDP预计2026年增长约2.3%，与2025年相同。
Good morning. Here's the usual summary table from the just-released World Economic Outlook from the IMF. More to follow. #economy #markets @IMFNews https://t.co/lptAHOJon5
Governor Waller participates in a discussion at the @BBGNewEconomy Forum 2026 Watch live: https://t.co/LRdfwsAu4K Learn more about Governor Waller: https://t.co/x9pLY09PF9
这两天美股一个迹象就是部分资金开始流切往价值股、医疗保健、金融、公用事业板块，一方面是防守另一方面也有上周五这里https://t.co/HyuQZKyn26聊“关注美债收益率筑顶的可能性”，收益率筑顶回落，之前一个多月被压制的这些板块都能往上冒头。昨晚纳指、标普跌，道指小涨也是这个逻辑。正好跟美银的报 https://t.co/Zmj26DGTpA 引用 @qinbafrank：现在看美银上周这份《FLOW Show》时机很好，Hartnett认为高利率已经开始影响市场内部结构，而中期选举可能进一步改变盈利、资本开支和监管预期。在这个窗口里，现金有收益，投资者也就有耐心等待。他给的建议是：
From the WSJ article, "China’s Weakening Economy Is Creating a Lost Generation." #economy #markets @WSJ #china https://t.co/PGOScAmGbr
Zelenskyy to Trump on Russian diesel supplies: "We do have influence over whether these ships can sail or not, whether these refineries can operate or not." 引用 @ZelenskyyUa：I don’t believe the volume of diesel Russia will export will affect the price. Moreover, we see that they can export from 300,
中国人民币兑美元汇率刚触及四年多来高位。多数法定货币兑美元走弱之际，人民币走势相反。
No Relief Coming At The Pump Despite all the rhetoric in recent days intended to create more product supply, it's all marginal in the face of an oil market that if anything looks like it's getting tighter. https://t.co/KLT3pxeovj
Ukraine has “influence over whether these ships can sail or not, whether these refineries can operate or not. … Electricity is what matters to us. That’s clear. If we can be guaranteed protection for our power system, then we will not strike Russia’s diesel infrastructure in 引用 @ZelenskyyUa：I don
Rolling correlation between bond yields and stock prices https://t.co/BlTWMjTrPn
Nela speaks about the risk of income erosion & refers to « 43% workers continuously employed at the same firm over the four years spanning 2021–2024 experienced a real wage decline, with a mean loss of roughly 9% among those who fell behind » https://t.co/3TZGtoBMDb
全球在途原油已升至接近历史高位，略低于7月签署谅解备忘录后创下的峰值。按Vortexa数据，本轮在途原油不含伊朗原油。https://t.co/6Qw6m08N1m
The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded on Monday to Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford “for microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stabilization.” https://t.co/tDkez5xSH6
再看上周五推文聊的几个思路，这两天：1）伊朗袭击油轮、胡塞沙特对轰 ，油价不稳住市场也没稳住； https://t.co/5aoaaS2gMx 引用 @qinbafrank：近期的美股就是在被不断调教： 1）昨天盘前报道说美军已经做好准备川普要在中期选举前升级再动手，盘前油价上行长债收益率也上行，市场都在跌。 然后盘中川普说“正在跟伊朗讨论，我们不会在11月3日美国中期选举之前的任何时候攻击伊朗”，情绪开始缓解；
If the French-German spread ends October at these levels, it'll represent a higher monthly high than the worst of the Euro crisis. Still below the daily peak in 2011. https://t.co/eWGtM7Rutb