X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
当被问到：你后悔说过“我现在就是庄家”吗？ 贝森特说：“不后悔，因为你看，庄家也不是每一把都赢，庄家玩的是概率长期下来你会赢。我无法控制债券市场。我能做的是让人们慢下来思考，而非控制市场。” 对美债收益率上升，贝森特认为与全球趋势一致，并非美国特有现象：“如果出现 https://t.co/XP3h9Nkluv 引用 @qinbafrank：“我现在是庄家，所以当我们干预日元的时候，我对日本人、日本央行、日本决策层要做什么了如指掌，你们要想跟我对赌就尽管来。这是贝森特昨晚在访谈中直接说的，当一位曾经参与成功狙击过英镑和泰铢、在外汇市场有着丰富经验的基金经理成为了美国财政部长，他确实有着极强
油价与美债联动相关性升至 35 年来最高 https://t.co/BY34TwZD7B 引用 @qinbafrank：昨晚的美股债市总结下来就是一句话：弱非农把10月加息概率进一步压低，AI高beta继续主导市场，但债市给出的信号远没有股市乐观。这里的核心还是油价和长债收益率。 1、油价方面： 1）好的层面
作者提到，伊朗周日再次强调，霍尔木兹海峡在七项条件得到满足前不会重新开放。作者转述报道称，周六至周日又有三艘油轮在霍尔木兹海峡被袭击，并提示关注当天油价走势。https://t.co/uuxhQGAcyY
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 In the latest ep of Oil Ground Up I was joined by Michelle Brouhard, head of policy and geopol risk at @Kpler, to talk about oil’s spiralling geopolitical mess, the diesel crisis, and what she really thinks about rising Hormuz oil flows https://t.co/ANumxzxKe4
Prepare for escalation of Houthi attacks on Saudi Red Sea shipping and coastal oil assets. https://t.co/xpYt4YCNXh
沙特支持的也门武装发起全面军事行动，试图夺回胡塞武装控制的所有地区。此前，伊朗支持的胡塞武装与沙特阿拉伯之间已持续数周升级。
发文者与《华尔街日报》记者 Georgi Kantchev 讨论本周霍尔木兹袭击增加，此前石油外运流量显著恢复。石油流量出现放缓或回落的初步迹象，但要确认是否形成持续转折仍需时间。
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells Axios's @mikeallen he thinks Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is "doing well." "If I look at my call sheet every day, I probably have a hundred calls to make. I think if you're Fed chair, you probably have three. So part of my job is to make sure https://t.co/JK3V5uxD
Iranian oil minister Mohsen Paknejad has resigned, according to state media, which didn't give any reason for his departure. Paknejad had been oil minister since Aug 2024. Hamid Bovard named acting minister.
Last week was mainly about bond market volatility, with evidence of spillover, and continued equity market resilience due to data and Fedspeak. This week, we get the Fed minutes and lots of interesting data. For more details, please see one of the links below for my weekly note
船舶经纪公司 Poten & Partners 估算，目前运费占原油抵达炼厂门口时每桶成本的逾25%，战前为3%。
波斯湾至远东航线超级油轮的日租成本进一步升至约130万美元。作者称，战争开始前日租成本低于5万美元，9月首次发布图表时约为110万美元。
My colleague @alexlongley1 speaks to the captain of an oil tanker doing Strait of Hormuz crossings. “Tankers are always at risk all the time,” the captain said. “It’s a very dangerous vessel.” https://t.co/2ARuar25xu
The most interesting cut of the labor market data from yesterday. https://t.co/v0ydXQk959 引用 @EPBResearch：A new cycle high for cyclical payrolls. https://t.co/9OcEXfq4wU
Fire, smoke seen near Aramco facility in Riyadh, witness says - https://t.co/m7MelUJZzH
Reuters: “A large plume of smoke and fire was seen rising in the vicinity of an Aramco facility in Riyadh on Saturday” https://t.co/tYnedQpCTm
Scenario (absolutely no relation to today) >oil experiences largest-ever supply shock >record pace of stock/emergency buffer drawdown >stocks fall from really high to precarious levels >supply fights to recover >mounting risk to 15 MMbpd of recovered supply Where are prices?
Bessent: "I can't control the bond market. What I can do is try to get people to slow down and think." "What I meant by 'I am the house' is that I have superior information." https://t.co/gWNMqc6992
Axios' @mikeallen asks Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent if he regrets saying "I am the house now." Bessent: "No, because look, the house doesn't win every hand. The house plays percentages." https://t.co/W7JkS3WqAV
图表显示，政府利息支出已升至 GDP 的 3.2%，为 60 多年来高位；非金融企业利息支出降至 GDP 的 0.7%，为 60 多年来低位。
Color-coded real yields. Even with the recent spike, 10-year TIPS (2.91%) are only back to the pre-QE average (2.74%). Back then, debt held by the public was ~35% of GDP. Now it's ~100%. If debt were the driver, real yields would be far higher than pre-2008. https://t.co/3G49zfzkwk
In September, % of unemployed for more than 27 weeks came in at 27.1%, up from 27.0% prior https://t.co/9exCEHKR80
美国非农就业人数两个月净修正减少6万个岗位。
9月劳动力参与率升至61.8%；男性参与率持平于67.2%，女性参与率小幅升至56.7%。
美国9月非农就业人数增加2.9万，低于预期的9万。前月新增就业人数为13.3万，较此前公布的16.2万下修。原文链接：https://t.co/tOuKDjyZzE
In September, job leavers as % of unemployed dropped to 10.5% vs. 13.1% in prior month https://t.co/PSTKbTD5IQ
The unemployment rate tells a similar picture of relative stability. It was 4.19% in June, 4.09% in July, 4.14% in August, and 4.18% in September. Since June 2024, the unemployment rate has not fallen below 4.0% or risen higher than 4.5%. https://t.co/x6ByfSnZ9P
美国三个月平均招聘人数此前公布的8月均值为7.1万人，现修订为5.1万人，9月三个月平均招聘人数也为5.1万人。9月私营部门就业增加5.4万人，高于下修后的8月4.8万人；引用内容称，过去三个月就业增长较此前报告略弱，失业率升至4.2%。
9月核心劳动年龄人口劳动参与率升至83.7%，前值为83.4%。
美国就业数据疲软后，交易员下调对美联储加息的预期，推动2年期美债收益率继续回落。下一个重要数据催化剂是10月14日公布的CPI通胀数据。
On October 1, 2026, Governor Waller gave remarks on Federal Reserve economic data at the @stlouisfed: https://t.co/YsKwAIFqW1 https://t.co/iJefKcW9uA
Great to join @NYSE with @KristenScholer to discuss the latest #jobsreport, #diesel prices, economic trends and what this all means for the #Fed's next rate decision via @EYnews @EY_Parthenon https://t.co/cJQZJ88htZ 引用 @NYSE：Today on NYSE Live: @parisingh, @flowenghq @keithirizarry, @MLBNetwork+@E
The so-called prime-age labor force participation rate remains near two-decade highs. https://t.co/biN6q6zifD
⚠️The labor force participation rate is rebounding from historically low levels -- primarily driven by a rebound in participation amongst the younger cohorts <24yo. Ageing and early retirements are still a major drag on LF participation rate. https://t.co/CRcCvYIII0
美国9月就业报告显示，非农就业人数增加2.9万，失业率为4.2%，上升0.1个百分点。私营部门增加4.6万人，其中商品部门增加1.8万人、服务业增加2.8万人；政府部门减少1.7万人，7月和8月数据合计下修6万人。就业扩散率为49%，劳动参与率为61.8%、上升0.2个百分点；工资环比增长0.1%，同比增长3.0%、下降0.1个百分点。
🚨Income erosion We've long established the labor market is non-inflationary, but with real wage growth having been negative for the last 6-months that represents a cap on consumer spending growth https://t.co/IjrXx3L6PQ
Part of the institutional backdrop that helps explain limited foreign demand for Treasuries even as the US borrowing need hovers around 6 pp of GDP. Treasuries aren't just competing with bunds and JGBs; governments are evaluating the risk/ reward of Treasuries relative to
The Economist's Free Exchange column highlights how state investors have lost interest in conventional reserve assets (read Treasuries) and have joined the rest of the world in reaching for yield ... 1/3 https://t.co/zcO4YhdyST
Today, Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control’s (OFAC) designations expose a multi-year scheme that moved more than $2 million to Hamas through sham charities and cryptocurrency. OFAC designated a member of Hamas’s military wing, along with two France-based individuals and
Understanding BLS Unemployment Statistics https://t.co/UqFR54oYCZ #JobsReport #BLSdata