X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号
The US is now running -- see the August data - a 4% of GDP goods and services trade deficit. How is that being financed -- strong foreign demand for US risk assets ... 1/2 https://t.co/NUsmoSJYRh
Rory Johnston称实物布伦特价差创历史新高，并将当前定价描述为危机交割定价。引用内容给出的 6/10/2026 Dated Brent 评估价为 $125.53/bbl，实物价差为 $19.105/bbl；作者表示，高昂的运输成本是部分原因，但这种价差也不会出现在疲弱或正常市场。
Gosh, $200/bbl oil? Who would ever put such an outrageous number out there... 😅 引用 @OilHeadlineNews：Vitol chief warns of tanker shortage and risk of $200-a-barrel oil Head of world’s largest independent oil trader says shipping squeeze is creating new bottleneck despite increased Gulf flows @sta
Early in the war I wondered why we didn't see more ships risking the journey across Hormuz for big profits despite obvious danger Easily enough spread—early in the war Gulf oil prices were functionally negative—to pay for sky-high insurance & crew hazard pay Well, we got there: https://t.co/f8IwKE
Peter Harrell on the Franco-German proposals to strengthen Europe's response to the second China shock 引用 @petereharrell：Lets unpack the new Franco-German paper proposing fundamental changes to how the EU manages trade policy and which, if implemented, would mark the most significant change to EU-C
Kinda interesting that everyone focused on the rolling 12W changes in open vs. closed and when it got most pronounced everyone was freaking out. last two weeks with really good model releases (Opus 5.5, Sol 6.1) closed actually TOOK back share on volume. It's 52% open - 48% https://t.co/cDMNZtwUcd
I do think tariff differentials matter, not just the absolute level -- and so do America's trade partners. Everyone last year negotiated to get a slightly lower tariff than their neighbors/ trade competitors. The impact of 12.5% on China was muted by going to 10% on almost
30 year TIPS at 3.4% is an amazing way to preserve wealth IMO. https://t.co/NjK2WFdDZq
作者讨论霍尔木兹海峡原油运输恢复后油价仍未大幅回落的原因，并称关键在成本。文中援引Kpler统计，沙特、UAE、伊拉克、阿曼、科威特和卡塔尔9月原油及凝析油出口约1470万桶。
Good morning. From the FT: "A sharp sell-off in US government bonds is starting to reverberate across corporate America, forcing companies to overhaul their borrowing plans and even raising the spectre of defaults among the most lowly rated businesses." Remember the historical https://t.co/tzvwm7W2N
Vitol CEO Russell Hardy估算，过去7至10天平均每天约有1400万桶油品通过霍尔木兹海峡，其中原油约1200万桶、成品油约200万桶。该数据统计的是通过海峡的流量，未计入绕行管道输送的额外油量。
Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent Participates in a Fireside Chat at the @PAChamber https://t.co/2gibTJVzEa
Brad Setser称，法院裁定IEEPA关税违法后，特朗普政府选择基本重建10%的关税，并豁免USMC贸易、药品和电子产品。引用者对此提出异议，称此前特朗普政府已对所有商品加征20%的IEEPA芬太尼关税及“解放日”关税，并称美国最高法院推翻了这些关税。
Red dye will be added to all US diesel for both broad highway fuel tax relief and to remind voters of which colour to vote for in the midterms. 引用 @DeItaone：TRUMP TO UNVEIL PLAN ON RED-DYED DIESEL ON MONDAY: OFFICIALS
中国品牌在英国9月新车EV销售中的占比超过20%，文中列举了比亚迪、Jaecoo、Chery、Omoda、长安和吉利。Brad Setser 引用《金融时报》关于英国商业大臣权衡对中国电动汽车加征关税的报道：https://t.co/HI5InKlpmg
The District of Columbia had the highest unemployment rate, 5.7 percent, in August 2026 https://t.co/Qzgc4PurpW #BLSdata https://t.co/BQL5GRt5JO
美国转向内燃机汽车之际，美国关税阻碍通用汽车和福特通过中国合资企业向美国销售汽车，也令特斯拉不愿从上海向美国供货。关税还阻碍中国高端电动汽车生产商。
China has the capacity to produce 50-55 million cars -- The domestic market has fallen from ~ 25m cars to ~20 m cars this year China could easily export 2-3m cars to the US AND its 1.5m cars to Europe https://t.co/3rQ50C7jvW 引用 @BaldingsWorld：One of my favorite parts of this is most everyone miss
二叠纪盆地天然气产量推动美国天然气产量在2026年7月创下历史新高。
Hormuz oil flows rose to their highest level of the war and then the number of successful Iranian strikes on Hormuz tankers spiked over the past week, Hormuz flow appearing to slow somewhat. Had heard that even before this latest escalation CENTCOM was regularly intercepting
Some questions I have about the recent escalation of Iranian strikes: https://t.co/hsAzkec3dE 引用 @Rory_Johnston：Hormuz oil flows rose to their highest level of the war and then the number of successful Iranian strikes on Hormuz tankers spiked over the past week, Hormuz flow appearing to slow somewh
Guys, I don’t think the Strait of Hormuz is safe right now
China rebalanced away from property investment and back toward exports -- bigly. numbers are very clear That is the issue that the world (apart from the US President, who prefers to dream of arches, golf courses and ballrooms) is now confronting in various ways https://t.co/7kD46OJFMa 引用 @Balding
If I had to nitpick I'd actually say it's the lack of refineries 引用 @staunovo：Trump says refineries are reason for high gasoline price #oott
Wish Secretary Bessent would have said something similar at Ashville ... Oh well. "the house" is not currently taking the lead on exchange rate issues
UKMTO报告霍尔木兹海峡又发生一起油轮袭击，船员据报仍在机舱内扑救火情。自上周三以来，UKMTO报告了11起已确认袭击和13起事件。
Standard ballpark calculations would support the argument that the surge in Chinese imports (~1 pp pf GDP, which drove a similar increase in non oil imports) would lead to a reduction in manufacturing employment of ~ 1m (1/4 of the 3.5 or so lost in early 00s) ... especially as 引用 @joefrancis505：Th
as noted before, China's manufacturing trade surplus surged during this period (up 1 pp of GDP) ... and I always thought economists accepted that large swings in the trade balance did have an impact on the composition of employment and output ...
If implemented through the EU’s law-making apparatus, it [the Franco-German letter] would mark a dramatic shift in how the bloc intends to confront China. The main novelty is a “second-strike capability” 2/3 https://t.co/HjAMNOCB8O
"Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz want to grant Brussels powers to hit back quickly at countries that retaliate when the EU imposes trade measures over allegedly unfair competition ... “It is a political signal to show Beijing that Europe, and Germany, mean business,” says a
* a much bigger tariff differential was put forward in the campaign, and the 20% across the board (no exclusions, including for electronics) tariff of Trump 2's first year did have an impact (final assembly for computers left China nearly completely). the fentanyl tariff is no
The Trump 1 tariffs did have some positive effects -- notably insulating the US auto sector from the second China shock. I have not seen any real evidence that the 2.5% tariff differential between China and Europe is doing much at all* 2/2
Lighthizer (Trump 1) introduced a 25% tariff on about 1/2 of US imports in 2017. Those sectors are now 1/4 to 1/3 of current imports from China. Trump 2 now has tariffs on trade with China to 12.5% (after going much higher), and either 12.5% or 10% on most other trade partners 引用 @BaldingsWorld：
The change to Europe's trade in key sectors occurred quite quickly. The overall balance in say autos was pretty stable going into 2024. It has now fallen in 1/2 if batteries (in HS 85) and added to the total https://t.co/7Pi3KgMUSv 引用 @SanderTordoir：A change of tune in the business community.
Across America, families and workers claimed $82 billion in direct tax relief. Ninety-seven percent of filers who would have otherwise owed taxes received a tax cut —and 96% of those who received one earned less than $200,000. More money in workers’ pockets. More opportunity for
Under Biden, everyday prices in Pennsylvania rose 19.2%, costing the average family more than $28,460. Under President Trump, core inflation has fallen from 3.3% to 2.4%. The Working Families Tax Cuts protected 223,000 Pennsylvania jobs and preserved $21 billion in wages and $40
If you have been worried sick about this... --- (Bloomberg) -- Elon Musk is a trillionaire again. The fortune of the world’s richest person jumped by $65 billion on Monday to $1.04 trillion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, as the value of his stakes in SpaceX and
Trump says “Canada does all their business with us, we do very little business with them.” Sure looks like a lot of red to me, and I think some of those states might be important in an upcoming election 🤷🏻♂️ https://t.co/1rChTt99ch 引用 @atrupar：Trump: "Canada behaves very badly with the United S
Shanu Mathew称，UBS预计全球年度机架容量部署将从2026E的26.5 GW升至2030E的104.5 GW，其中50.5 GW将用于Nvidia。作者以ERCOT当前约90GW的峰值负荷作对照，称部署全部容量相当于满足ERCOT目前的峰值负荷；原文列出$NVDA、$GOOGL、$AMD、$MSFT、$META、$ORCL和$AMZN。
沙特将11月远东旗舰原油OSP定为较Dubai基准低5美元，10月为低2美元。原文称，这是六年来即新冠疫情以来最大折价；交易员此前预期11月会出现溢价。