PODCAST: Pleasure to join @Rory_Johnston for a discussion about the war, why oil prices didn't reach $200 a barrel, the global economy, Hormuz crossings, China and a lot more stuff. https://t.co/mRn6XSya27
Last round of Fed-speak before Warsh tonight and the October blackout. All of these comments were made Wednesday: Bowman (a few hours *before* CPI): "I don't feel any urgency... We really need to take some time and understand how things will evolve within the economy." Goolsbee
In the newsletter, I wrote about what a clarifying week this has been for markets. We got two hot inflation prints, and yet rates across the board have been falling. It's never been more obvious that the entire market is just the AI trade, and virtually nothing else. https://t.co/qVKhWb6JoK
WRT rates and inflation, I think you just gotta keep it really simple. Don't spend too much time thinking about deficits, debt, and supply of paper. The story is about spending. Households, corporates and government all spending a lot, and that's what's driving things up. 引用 @TheStalwart:In the new
Latest @AAIISentiment (week ending 10/14/26) showed modest shifts as bullish sentiment slid to 38.7% vs. 40.3% while bearish sentiment edged up to 41.6% vs. 39.0% ... this week’s special question polls AAII members on investing approach https://t.co/AKPtnEd9Pt
Under Operation Economic Outcast, Treasury’s @FinCENnews issued an Alert asking financial institutions to report potential Iranian regime abuse of religious charity networks, including diversion of religious tithes, or khums. The Iranian regime has been known to abuse ostensibly
2010s: Company Behind AWS Decides to get into filmmaking 2020s: Film Studio Behind Cocaine bear Decides to get into the cloud 引用 @M_C_Klein:@TheStalwart would be funny if the movie studio were Amazon, Apple, or Paramount/Warner
Smart Tho aligning with the EU on plug in hybrids and battery electric vehicles currently means doing somewhat different things 引用 @FT:France and Germany to allow UK in EU car policy if it aligns on China tariffs https://t.co/yOtqTd2Q5m
How do I use a Microsoft LLM? Where are they? I couldn't find an API on Openrouter. 引用 @mustafasuleyman:We now have state-of-the-art pre-trained base models in the 3T-parameter weight class, built entirely in-house at MAI. Post-training results coming soon -- stay tuned! Lots of details in our te
High Beta, Pure Growth, and Momentum are the only three U.S. equity factor indices in negative territory month to date. By contrast, Low Volatility leads the factor space with a 4.0% gain, while the S&P 500 is up 0.9%. A sector lens helps explain this divergence. Information https://t.co/JQ2jbsTAiW
Today, as part of Operation Economic Outcast, Treasury disrupted Iran’s efforts to infiltrate the international financial system through an Iraqi bank that also supports Iran’s terrorist proxy militia groups. By dismantling these institutions—including offshore banks and shadow
And it isn't exactly a secret that China's exports to SE Asia include a lot of parts that are sent to ASEAN countries for final assembly to meet US demand to really cut its dependence on US China needs to find an alternative source of end demand -- and few EMs are big enough/ https://t.co/RCKR2yevh
Tho to be clear, without a 1 pp of GDP increase in gold imports by China in 2026 its surplus would be way up -- and the latest export and import numbers point to a substantial net export contribution in 26 even with that surge on gold imports ... so the 26 imbalance is actually https://t.co/HgnRaIHk
Kudos to the IMF for not forecasting China's current account surplus away in the latest WEO, and for recognizing that its past forecasts (which had imbalances narrowing over time) have not materialized 1/ https://t.co/bkRdS6yncT
We're gonna have Misery Futures now 引用 @AdjacentMarkets:We are excited to launch MSRY, the Misery Implied Index, the first live, real-time version of the Misery Index. Misery has been an economic indicator since the 1960s as a broad way of tracking the US economy by adding the unemployment and inf
Given the CoreWeave drama. A good time to remember that a datacenter is a bank. 引用 @TheStalwart:A DATACENTER IS A BANK In today’s newsletter, I wrote some things I’ve been thinking about since our chat with @iaindunning, and how maybe one day we’ll have datacenter supervisors like we have bank sup
Heads up that we're doing a rare Twitter space tonight with @DonMiami3 and @RealJohnGaltFla. Stop in, listen to our chat, say hi, disagree vehemently, insist that I'm paid by both the CIA and Tehran—it'll be a blast! 引用 @DonMiami3:Join us with @Rory_Johnston next Thursday for macro happy hour on o
Figuring out how to prevent AI models from doing “rogue” things is obviously good. But I also agree with Alvaro here. We don’t know how the future will unfold, but extreme concentrated power per se is worrisome and it’s very plausible that creating strong AI will lead to that. 引用 @GroundhogStrat:So
Great read 引用 @arpitrage:I spent a couple of days at Anthropic learning from their folks about AI advances, and here's what I took away: • We are close to RSI (ie, models building other models) which may lead to rapid takeoff scenarios (with risks and benefits). Some evidence for this is code per
I spent a couple of days at Anthropic learning from their folks about AI advances, and here's what I took away: • We are close to RSI (ie, models building other models) which may lead to rapid takeoff scenarios (with risks and benefits). Some evidence for this is code per https://t.co/jJdL3Olnvo
The whole world will watch this 引用 @Teslaconomics:The only other person who’s ever made me this excited about a product unveil was Steve Jobs. Watching him introduce the first iPhone is a huge part of why I fell in love with technology. Elon brings that feeling back for me, but honestly, I think h
Maybe we should start a competitor to Amazon 🤔 引用 @thecsguy:amazon is blocking grok @bots from ordering, and elon's answer is just have your bot buy it somewhere else. one of my grok bots only handles my amazon returns, so i'm watching this one closely. would you switch stores for your bot? 🛒