X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号。按时间排，不论是否入选精选。
Guess like we found out why Elon has been going on a crusade against memory in his recent posts. $SKHY and Samsung have been price hiking memory too much? https://t.co/r3sTYkd7TX
Good morning. Here's the usual summary table from the just-released World Economic Outlook from the IMF. More to follow. #economy #markets @IMFNews https://t.co/lptAHOJon5
这两天美股一个迹象就是部分资金开始流切往价值股、医疗保健、金融、公用事业板块，一方面是防守另一方面也有上周五这里https://t.co/HyuQZKyn26聊“关注美债收益率筑顶的可能性”，收益率筑顶回落，之前一个多月被压制的这些板块都能往上冒头。昨晚纳指、标普跌，道指小涨也是这个逻辑。正好跟美银的报 https://t.co/Zmj26DGTpA 引用 @qinbafrank：现在看美银上周这份《FLOW Show》时机很好，Hartnett认为高利率已经开始影响市场内部结构，而中期选举可能进一步改变盈利、资本开支和监管预期。在这个窗口里，现金有收益，投资者也就有耐心等待。他给的建议是：
听了David Rosenberg和Jeffery Gundlach对话，发现做宏观的看多股市的真不多。另外不知道为啥，总觉得美联储在犯错，自己最懂经济。 21年到现在，David R关于股市的看法。 21，谨慎，看空股市 22，看空，预期·30%回调 23，非常看空，预期2900-3200 24，仍然谨慎 25，更加担心股市，AI估值过高
Meta发布Muse Wonder和Muse Wonder Full两款模型，官方称其在个人和专业智能体任务上达到行业前沿水平，这是Meta超级智能实验室（MSL）去年重组以来推出的第一款前沿大模型。Muse Wonder即日起通过Meta Model API和编程智能体Muse提供。
现在看美银上周这份《FLOW Show》时机很好，Hartnett认为高利率已经开始影响市场内部结构，而中期选举可能进一步改变盈利、资本开支和监管预期。在这个窗口里，现金有收益，投资者也就有耐心等待。他给的建议是： 1）对继续追加拥挤敞口保持谨慎 2）科技内部相对偏好七巨头，胜过半导体； https://t.co/THUFEVDzvC 引用 @qinbafrank：花旗10月5日发布的《全球股票季度展望：韧性还是自满？》核心其实是在回答一个很重要的问题：为什么在油价高位、全球重新进入加息周期、长端利率大幅上行、美国—伊朗冲突没有彻底解决、市场广度又明显恶化的情况下，全球股票仍然接近历史高点？
Rolling correlation between bond yields and stock prices https://t.co/BlTWMjTrPn
Profitable Russell 2000 stocks continue to outperform non-profitable ones (unlike last year when the latter outperformed the former 2-to-1) Source: Bloomberg, as of 10/9/2026. Profitable companies have trailing 12-month earnings per share greater than $0. Indexes are unmanaged, https://t.co/P7hiu8K
Nela speaks about the risk of income erosion & refers to « 43% workers continuously employed at the same firm over the four years spanning 2021–2024 experienced a real wage decline, with a mean loss of roughly 9% among those who fell behind » https://t.co/3TZGtoBMDb
NABE2026第二天开场，副主席 Nela Richardson 讨论最新展望调查。调查显示，中东冲突加剧通胀压力，部分传导至核心通胀，且美联储立场更加紧缩。
标普 500 连续 85 个交易日未出现单日下跌 2% 的情况。
Fed communication has gotten a hair more dovish in recent weeks, per Fedlock https://t.co/zVh6WKpRAj https://t.co/xhAhrFzjb5
标普等权指数RSP/标普加权指数SPY触及历史新低。之前这里有聊过分化的根源https://t.co/414LouO9O7 https://t.co/y6Hc2NoaE9 引用 @qinbafrank：再看上周五推文聊的几个思路，这两天：1）伊朗袭击油轮、胡塞沙特对轰 ，油价不稳住市场也没稳住； https://t.co/5aoaaS2gMx
Summer 2007 when the math was pretty clear that the credit losses were going to be in the trillions. https://t.co/KzNYHtBczw https://t.co/X1BVMQ1hdU https://t.co/QqGudCeERV 引用 @riqsz5：For those who were adults during the 2008 financial crisis, what was your holy crap, the economy is actually crash
It'll be interesting to see who does/doesn't show up at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh later this month. https://t.co/SlujHF3KIY https://t.co/8c8MdKYEC9
At #NABE2026, @KevRGordon discusses “vibepression” 1️⃣ Cumulative inflation 2️⃣ Miserable expectations 3️⃣ « Strange » and uneven labor market 4️⃣ Profits for thee, not for me 5️⃣ Net worth in driver’s seat ⚠️ New normal: higher speed limit and higher deficit https://t.co/yqRpQTYsIq
At #NABE2026, @kylascan discusses the factors behind the vibecession: 1️⃣ Later achievement of life milestones 2️⃣ Media and social negative bias 3️⃣ Labor market frozen and slow wage growth 4️⃣ Price volatility and cumulative inflation @nabe_econ https://t.co/F7miIHID5P
啥都没变，价格变了，性价比快来了，解禁也快结束了 引用 @TJ_Research：很多人问我加没加仓，我都没停下来过，1：45直播到现在，直播完听财报，吃饭，现在给你们X码字总结，待会把微软继续听完，马上9点半还得App里直播，容易嘛 苹果还没被止损，准备卖了，加NOK，8-8.5都可以开始买下去，另外一个我很喜欢的长期标的是CBRS，但30B以下再考虑。加仓不急于一天，看财报更重要
Over the last few months, we’ve made significant progress in reducing the effectiveness of distillation attacks against Claude. In this post, we explain how: https://t.co/uWiRSLBuOS
US has ~2x China's data center capacity, and 3x+ Europe's. Let's not lose that competitive advantage. https://t.co/jGw5qEHFYH
Something that blows my mind is the variance of the estimates we're still seeing for data center capacity. We’re already in mid-October and the selected estimates for 2026 US data-center growth still span roughly 10–21 GW on an IT basis. A range more than 2x for the year we’re https://t.co/VL1dm0sQw
Meta超级智能实验室成立一年多，推出Muse Wonder前沿模型家族，面向个人和专业智能体工作，性能达到最先进水平。
Love people opening up the convo to debate/learn in public and Matt is great at it. Sharing for broader awareness. I'll leave the chip-based GW forecasts to others, but on power, I've presented several frameworks for thinking about US IT capacity and the very real limits that https://t.co/fTp3ZzdW5
DTE与Google在Van Buren Township签订1 GW、期限为20年的电力合同。作者称，密歇根州10月1日的相关命令披露了超大规模云服务商的最低电力承诺，并提到为公用事业提供下行保护的基础设施投资安排。
Sure... Random train of thoughts on markets now, optics like $LITE / memory + $IREN / Anthropic. On Memory: - Demand visibility on $MU / Samsung / SK Hynix extend into 2030-2031. Samsung has LTAs covering 70% of their capacity into 2031 (likely with SK Hynix type price 引用 @Wolfex_Yeat：@aleabi
Brad Setser称，中国汽车出口今年在高基数上加速增长，是欧盟改变贸易范式的重要原因。引用的路透数据称，9月乘用车销量同比下降28.1%至163万辆，汽车出口同比增长73.2%至92.3万辆；8月对应变化分别为下降23.7%和增长77.5%。
European exports of machinery, electronics and cars to China weigh about half as much as they did 6 years ago ... 2/3 https://t.co/y9hI8yZvfE
US economic data have increasingly been disappointing analyst expectations, with the Bloomberg US economic surprise index turning negative in the past few weeks. This is edifying concerns that consumers will soon run out of steam to keep spending as much as prices keep rising. https://t.co/Ehiz8hI2f
汽油价格与选票，此次中期选举民主党一定会横扫么？高盛这张图将民主党通用选票领先优势与美国平均零售汽油价格叠加对比：民主党的领先优势在伊朗战争爆发导致汽油价格飙升后逐步扩大，两组数据近期朝同一方向运动。而且油价还稍稍有点领先信号的意思。 https://t.co/CnlS7DwoBo 引用 @qinbafrank：近期的美股就是在被不断调教： 1）昨天盘前报道说美军已经做好准备川普要在中期选举前升级再动手，盘前油价上行长债收益率也上行，市场都在跌。 然后盘中川普说“正在跟伊朗讨论，我们不会在11月3日美国中期选举之前的任何时候攻击伊朗”，情绪开始缓解；
Lol Trump’s deal wasn’t even an energy ceasefire proper, it was a “refinery-for-refinery” proposal. Only problem: Ukraine only has one damaged refinery that matters little Russia has upward of 36 oil refineries constituting the world’s third largest refinery fleet by capacity https://t.co/GpODaZ
We are coming off a curious week of economic and financial dualism ... and are now looking at a packed one featuring US inflation data, lots of other global releases, and the IMF-World Bank annual meetings. For details, please use one of the following links to read my Weekly Look https://t.co/iuRLp9
BREAKING: US President Donald Trump claims that both Russia and Ukraine have agreed to an "energy truce" (note this is the 2nd time Trump has made a similar announcement, although this time it comes after a Russia-US diesel on diesel) https://t.co/WMF4kA7e6P
Trump claims both Ukraine and Russia have agreed to an “energy ceasefire” Now where have I heard that before? https://t.co/moM0P4XgOa
3/ She prefers "smaller, more frequent" moves to avoid bigger hikes later. Her neutral-rate estimate is among the Fed's highest, and she says if she's wrong, it's too low. Also, higher yields are "absolutely not" a substitute for Fed hikes https://t.co/Amj2pqRriQ
Mag7应该叫“Mag700”，这个观点还挺有意思。核心是当前美股“缺乏广度”（主要由Mag 7等少数大票推动）不必过度担心，原因有两点： 引用 @EricBalchunas：The Stock Market Is Currently Out of Breadth But It's No Reason to Worry.. new from me on the latest worry being hurled at investors from the columnist class and what they aren't telling you: 1) over past 100 ye
Hey, NABE Annual Meeting attendees! We’re talking all things BEA data at our booth. Swing by for the latest GDP stats and lots more. @nabe_econ https://t.co/QBhDvr0Iyo
红杉两年前提出的6000亿美元问题，如今已变成3万亿美元问题。相关支出规模扩大之际，实际收入仅增加略多于1000亿美元，前瞻性需求与现实收入之间的差距已扩大。
泽连斯基称，他与加拿大总理卡尼、芬兰总统斯图布及北约秘书长吕特讨论了特朗普宣布的能源停火，乌克兰支持停火，并表示俄罗斯也应支持。乌方正在等待美方提供细节；原作者补充称，泽连斯基没有与特朗普本人讨论此事，并提出俄罗斯进一步施压时乌方是否会减少对能源设施的打击仍是问题。
特朗普威胁称，如果基辅不停止袭击俄罗斯炼油厂，就将终止Purl。Purl是由北约管理、基辅的盟友购买美国制造武器并供应给乌克兰的计划。
Remember two weeks ago when risk premium sceptics were looking at ACM and saying risk premiums were falling not rising. Where are the sceptics today. Using one model is stupid but thinking risk premiums were falling back then was even stupiderer https://t.co/KnWYUsuzHk