9月劳动力参与率升至61.8%，男性参与率持平
9月劳动力参与率升至61.8%；男性参与率持平于67.2%，女性参与率小幅升至56.7%。
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X·宏观AI 评分4545 X·宏观AI 评分6565 美国9月非农新增就业人数2.9万，低于预期的9万
美国9月非农就业人数增加2.9万，低于预期的9万。前月新增就业人数为13.3万，较此前公布的16.2万下修。原文链接：https://t.co/tOuKDjyZzE
X·宏观AI 评分3333 In September, job leavers as % of unemployed dropped to 10.5% vs. 13.1% in prior month
In September, job leavers as % of unemployed dropped to 10.5% vs. 13.1% in prior month https://t.co/PSTKbTD5IQ
X·宏观AI 评分3131 The unemployment rate tells a similar picture of relative stability.
The unemployment rate tells a similar picture of relative stability. It was 4.19% in June, 4.09% in July, 4.14% in August, and 4.18% in September. Since June 2024, the unemployment rate has not fallen below 4.0% or risen higher than 4.5%. https://t.co/x6ByfSnZ9P
X·宏观AI 评分6060 美国三个月平均招聘人数修订至5.1万人，9月私营部门就业增加5.4万人
美国三个月平均招聘人数此前公布的8月均值为7.1万人，现修订为5.1万人，9月三个月平均招聘人数也为5.1万人。9月私营部门就业增加5.4万人，高于下修后的8月4.8万人；引用内容称，过去三个月就业增长较此前报告略弱，失业率升至4.2%。
X·宏观AI 评分4747 9月美国核心劳动年龄人口劳动参与率升至83.7%，前值83.4%
9月核心劳动年龄人口劳动参与率升至83.7%，前值为83.4%。
X·宏观AI 评分4747 美国就业数据疲软后，美债市场如何反应
美国就业数据疲软后，交易员下调对美联储加息的预期，推动2年期美债收益率继续回落。下一个重要数据催化剂是10月14日公布的CPI通胀数据。
X·宏观AI 评分2424 On October 1, 2026, Governor Waller gave remarks on Federal Reserve economic data at the :
On October 1, 2026, Governor Waller gave remarks on Federal Reserve economic data at the @stlouisfed: https://t.co/YsKwAIFqW1 https://t.co/iJefKcW9uA
X·宏观AI 评分1010 Great to join with to discuss the latest #jobsreport, #diesel prices, economic trends and what this…
Great to join @NYSE with @KristenScholer to discuss the latest #jobsreport, #diesel prices, economic trends and what this all means for the #Fed's next rate decision via @EYnews @EY_Parthenon https://t.co/cJQZJ88htZ 引用 @NYSE：Today on NYSE Live: @parisingh, @flowenghq @keithirizarry, @MLBNetwork+@E
X·宏观AI 评分2323 The so-called prime-age labor force participation rate remains near two-decade highs.
The so-called prime-age labor force participation rate remains near two-decade highs. https://t.co/biN6q6zifD
X·宏观AI 评分2020 ⚠️The labor force participation rate is rebounding from historically low levels -- primarily driven…
⚠️The labor force participation rate is rebounding from historically low levels -- primarily driven by a rebound in participation amongst the younger cohorts <24yo. Ageing and early retirements are still a major drag on LF participation rate. https://t.co/CRcCvYIII0
X·宏观AI 评分7070 美国9月就业报告显示非农新增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
美国9月就业报告显示，非农就业人数增加2.9万，失业率为4.2%，上升0.1个百分点。私营部门增加4.6万人，其中商品部门增加1.8万人、服务业增加2.8万人；政府部门减少1.7万人，7月和8月数据合计下修6万人。就业扩散率为49%，劳动参与率为61.8%、上升0.2个百分点；工资环比增长0.1%，同比增长3.0%、下降0.1个百分点。
X·宏观AI 评分3131 🚨Income erosion
🚨Income erosion We've long established the labor market is non-inflationary, but with real wage growth having been negative for the last 6-months that represents a cap on consumer spending growth https://t.co/IjrXx3L6PQ
X·宏观AI 评分3131 This ho-hum labor market report doesn't really change the story for the Fed, whose senior officials…
This ho-hum labor market report doesn't really change the story for the Fed, whose senior officials had gone out of their way this week to signal that an October rate hike probably wasn't their base-case. The biggest development was what it didn't show: few signs from wages or https://t.co/6GY9Ud2Q
X·宏观AI 评分1414 Part of the institutional backdrop that helps explain limited foreign demand for Treasuries even as…
Part of the institutional backdrop that helps explain limited foreign demand for Treasuries even as the US borrowing need hovers around 6 pp of GDP. Treasuries aren't just competing with bunds and JGBs; governments are evaluating the risk/ reward of Treasuries relative to
X·宏观AI 评分1313 Adam Tooze's concept of a profit dollar works for sovereign investors too:
Adam Tooze's concept of a profit dollar works for sovereign investors too: "Mr Setser estimates that nearly all the new funds and banks are more exposed to America than their countries’ central banks are" 2/3 https://t.co/kuLDaYydUT
X·宏观AI 评分1919 The Economist's Free Exchange column highlights how state investors have lost interest in…
The Economist's Free Exchange column highlights how state investors have lost interest in conventional reserve assets (read Treasuries) and have joined the rest of the world in reaching for yield ... 1/3 https://t.co/zcO4YhdyST
X·宏观AI 评分1111 In a shocking turn of events, this time I completely agree with David and tweeted the math broadly.
In a shocking turn of events, this time I completely agree with David and tweeted the math broadly. 引用 @DavidZervosDC：In the @ftopinion article below, @martinwolf_ claims that the average maturity of US Treasury issuance decreased from 6.1 years in 2024 to 2.5 years in 2026. He should check his mat
X·宏观AI 评分1818 Our latest #OnInvesting podcast episode has dropped on which and I chat about bond yields, the…
Our latest #OnInvesting podcast episode has dropped on which @CollinMartinCS and I chat about bond yields, the yield curve, and weak stock market breadth; and I sit down with the always-insightful Eric Liu from @vandaresearch, who discusses Vanda’s latest upgrade to their view
X·宏观AI 评分2424 Today, Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control’s (OFAC) designations expose a multi-year scheme…
Today, Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control’s (OFAC) designations expose a multi-year scheme that moved more than $2 million to Hamas through sham charities and cryptocurrency. OFAC designated a member of Hamas’s military wing, along with two France-based individuals and
X·宏观AI 评分77 Understanding BLS Unemployment Statistics #JobsReport #BLSdata
Understanding BLS Unemployment Statistics https://t.co/UqFR54oYCZ #JobsReport #BLSdata
X·宏观AI 评分00 See our interactive graphics on today’s #JobsReport #BLSdata #DataViz
See our interactive graphics on today’s #JobsReport https://t.co/zr2jYOBDg8 #BLSdata #DataViz
X·宏观AI 评分99 This is a good example of domestic political considerations and geopolitical pressures driving an…
This is a good example of domestic political considerations and geopolitical pressures driving an economic policy decision in this era of geo-economics. Releasing these strategic reserves helps partially shield consumers from soaring prices, but it’s also a high-stakes, https://t.co/AXLFDWGQQn
X·宏观AI 评分1818 I amplified the IIF's number on the change in the maturity structure of issuance that Wolf used…
I amplified the IIF's number on the change in the maturity structure of issuance that Wolf used, and it doesn't seem to check out. That said, I do think net bill issuance is poised to jump again -- the 4qs to q2 2026 are a temporary low https://t.co/ZFXi6F35Hj 引用 @DavidZervosDC：In the @ftopinion a
X·宏观AI 评分22 FYI: Some of the links to this morning's conversation on Yahoo Finance.
FYI: Some of the links to this morning's conversation on Yahoo Finance. https://t.co/x6VvRYRyAc https://t.co/JCcakw6t1G https://t.co/IUtlA0AtlF #economy #markets #jobs #federalreserve #employment
X·宏观AI 评分2727 France has taken center stage these days among the G7's three most bond-sensitive economies, with…
France has taken center stage these days among the G7's three most bond-sensitive economies, with the French-German 10-year spread moving more than 50 bps in the last month. (The other two economies are Japan and the UK.) #economy #markets #france #eurozone #europe #bonds #yields https://t.co/M1YpIE
X·宏观AI 评分2121 . and held a fireside chat during the U.S.-Japan-South Korea Trilateral Executive Dialogue at the…
.@SecScottBessent and @SenatorHagerty held a fireside chat during the U.S.-Japan-South Korea Trilateral Executive Dialogue at the Milken Institute. Secretary Bessent highlighted how Japanese and Korean investment supports American jobs, critical supply chains, and strategic https://t.co/6uR9twSrf6
X·宏观AI 评分11 They could be compatible if it turned out that the best/fastest way to build a successful business…
They could be compatible if it turned out that the best/fastest way to build a successful business product is to assemble a bunch of people who share the same idiosyncratic or interests. 引用 @yudhanjaya：I genuinely don't get Anthropic. It seems like every other day they're loudly puzzling over the e
X·宏观AI 评分4949 市场对美联储近期政策行动的定价本周大幅调整
过去3天，市场对美联储10月下一次FOMC会议加息的定价概率从70%降至23%。原文提到12月，但内容未完。
X·宏观AI 评分2121 NEW: The White House finds that seven policies in the Democratic Socialists of America’s 2026…
NEW: The White House finds that seven policies in the Democratic Socialists of America’s 2026 program would add about $49 trillion to federal deficits over ten years. That is roughly $355,000 for every American household. https://t.co/lSn7ZxLcZZ https://t.co/4MsqPKsVN4
X·宏观AI 评分3030 Blanche tells Bloomberg News he isn't reopening a criminal investigation into former Fed Chair…
Blanche tells Bloomberg News he isn't reopening a criminal investigation into former Fed Chair Jerome Powell for cost overruns on its buildings But he said that if the Fed's own internal audit of the project finds evidence of wrongdoing, the DOJ could investigate
X·宏观AI 评分1515 Catch up on all the new #BLSdata and publications that came out this week!
Catch up on all the new #BLSdata and publications that came out this week! https://t.co/aWoAAD7KuR https://t.co/bdqemgmG1U
X·宏观AI 评分2222 I very very very strongly disagree and think that AI adoption in the enterprise beyond coding is…
I very very very strongly disagree and think that AI adoption in the enterprise beyond coding is basically at the starting line 引用 @krishnanrohit：Everyone uses AI by now. Senior leaders are vibecoding apps. They've adopted claude. They're finding workflows to automate. Folks have their own claws. A
X·宏观AI 评分1818 Notes on the Data have been added for the following as-of-date: July 1, 2026, and revised for the…
Notes on the Data have been added for the following as-of-date: July 1, 2026, and revised for the following as-of-dates: April 2, 2025; July 2, 2025; October 1, 2025; December 31, 2025; and April 1, 2026. Data on this H.8 release have been benchmarked through the June 2026 Call
X·宏观AI 评分1919 Now available: Weekly data on the H.8 release, Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the…
Now available: Weekly data on the H.8 release, Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States (1/2) #FedData https://t.co/WeJhdaARrt
X·宏观AI 评分1010 Approval of application by Fleur Capital Corporation:
Approval of application by Fleur Capital Corporation: https://t.co/leWVVgepsb
X·宏观AI 评分1414 France is the Biggest Loser in the Global Rates Reset
France is the Biggest Loser in the Global Rates Reset https://t.co/NchvzzAr0W In much of the rich world, the uptick in the cost of capital corresponds to a relatively benign change in (nominal) growth trajectories. This is less true for Europe, and especially for France. https://t.co/z1NrI86j10
X·宏观AI 评分2020 Trump says he’s not satisfied with media coverage that relied on the statements of his own attorney…
Trump says he’s not satisfied with media coverage that relied on the statements of his own attorney general that suggested the DOJ is done investigating the Fed building renovations. He restates his unhappiness with former Fed chair Powell. https://t.co/LH8IxiUnoW 引用 @NickTimiraos：Blanche tells Blo
X·宏观AI 评分2222 So the AK capital growth loop is the thing that makes this work. However it ignores physics limits…
So the AK capital growth loop is the thing that makes this work. However it ignores physics limits on energy and materials and Baumols Cost disease. But perhaps most importantly it ignores the sources and constraints on capital due to cash flow timing deficits Minsky squeeze 引用 @firesidealpha：
X·宏观AI 评分3636 A manufacturing surplus somewhere north of 4 trillion, a customs surplus north of $2.5 trillion --
A manufacturing surplus somewhere north of 4 trillion, a customs surplus north of $2.5 trillion -- Basically, China's current trajectory, with sustained 10% growth in export volumes and a more modest but still pronounced increase in the surplus in manufactures https://t.co/jtfRvKoQCG 引用 @Balding