X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号。按时间排，不论是否入选精选。
As this mix of charts from CNBC and Bloomberg illustrates, one of the few areas of economic and financial relief this past week came from lower government bond yields. More to follow in my weekly look at global economy and markets. #economy #markets #stocks #bonds #oil #gold https://t.co/3bG9pFMRc
An illustration below from the Wall Street Journal of the cause and effect of the ongoing rotation trade in the US stock market. (Please see my post from yesterday about what I call the (1-x) qualification to this rotation trade.) #economy #markets #investors #investing #tech https://t.co/ukvVuRskYa
今年虽然市场上涨，但是高难度。 引用 @hochnnnn：@xixixi19888 @TJ_Research 唉，经过 7 月那一波我感觉已经心力交瘁了。本来想着事情几乎能够过去，没想到又重演了一次同样的剧本。钱没赚到，身体和心理确实累到了，以后还是只买指数算了。指数最近稳的不行，但不同板块基本都经历了地狱
美联储主席沃什没有释放可能加息的信号，市场定价加息概率为14%。结合近期美联储关键决策者的讲话，作者认为10月FOMC会议可能“鹰派按兵不动”。
华尔街与旧金山科技圈对 AI 产能是否过剩存在分歧，科技圈人士认为，考虑过度建设的可能性就意味着不够相信 AI。未来几个月，若 AI 采用加速或总体生产率证据显现，AI 交易可能大幅上涨；若采用速度或前沿实验室经济性令人失望，也存在下行风险。越来越多人预期未来 18 个月内重演互联网泡沫式崩盘。
Even though Federal Reserve Chair Warsh emphasized that he doesn’t "prejudge meetings" and that the Fed is no longer in the business of forward guidance, markets have interpreted his remarks at the IMF meetings in Thailand as dovish when it comes to an October rate action.
美联储主席 Kevin Warsh 表示，AI 将通过改善预测从根本上改变货币政策的实施。他说，未来不久，分析通胀趋势时就不必再用老式模型“折磨”数据。
The surge in AI-related imports is leading to increased import price pressures that are filtering through to domestic producer and consumer price inflation https://t.co/q1NLbJodYV
Markets positioned for a “hawkish hold” at October FOMC meeting https://t.co/NUIFkLd7uq
Yeah. Quant trading seems like a space where you could never have too much intelligence, and always get returns from more capable models. But also totally zero sum market. Permanent arms race to fight over a fixed amount of alpha. 引用 @stevehou：This is a great set of observations. I agree with almos
Kevin Warsh's quip definitely got a laugh from the audience in Bangkok. "Kristalina, you pronounce it A.I. In the U.S. we now pronounce it S.I., just so you know."😆 https://t.co/uZlsy0IhVz 引用 @vtg2：Fed Chair Kevin Warsh threading the needle by joking(?) that in the US, AI is now called "SI," and
If anyone was wondering whether Trump's Russian diesel deal was a crack that might provide Europe with some wiggle room to source more Russian molecules ahead of winter the answer is NOPE. https://t.co/8GW8RqqDi5
从控制权的角度看老马是有多想把特斯拉装进SpaceX里去？答案是非常想。从股份和投票权就能看出来： 1）老马在特斯拉持股约20%左右，特斯拉是单一类别股票没有超级投票前去，所以老马在特斯拉的投票权也在20%左右。 2）但SpaceX则不同 老马在SpaceX持股比例48.4%，但SpaceX采用双重股权结构：Class 引用 @qinbafrank：Roadster刚完成新一轮展示对特斯拉的当下影响是什么？ 近期市场认真讨论与SpaceX合并的可能性有多大？ 下周10月21日美股盘后特斯拉三季报能否超预期、需要关注的点有哪些？ 在OKX星球上写了一篇文章，核心就是聊这三方面。 简单说就是：
Our latest @SchwabResearch #SchwabMarketPerspective has been published: https://t.co/d1Y4Fjf1c2
Our latest #OnInvesting podcast episode has dropped, on which @CollinMartinCS and I explore hotter-than-expected inflation and why investors should remain focused on quality as higher rates pressure more interest-rate-sensitive companies. Colin also sits down with @TCWGroup
TBAC Questionaire. No obvious guidance that "The House" is going to martingale and manipulate the long end further.
Today's TBAC/Dealer Questionnaire may have been a signal that "The House" has folded. If he had wanted to pump ahead of election he could have. The odds he folded went up today. Read this client report and pinned tweet for membership info. https://t.co/XqG6e4LXmx
朋友，PM有业绩压力，我没有。 我接触的LO基金，今年全部跑输ACWI 5-10+%，全是出名的机构，主动基金过去几年是灾难区，就算是HF，今年不是5月份的追涨也是一塌糊涂。可以把今年HF的YTD一家家都列出来，没赚多少还DEGROSS，4月份他们敢追吗？ 引用 @zhusports1982：@TJ_Research 小桃有自己的view是一个很好的点！但如果站在机构角度，你离PM还有蛮多提升空间～试着站在LO甚至空头角度思考板块配置和仓位管理，比如最近那么明显的degross趋势，就应该降一些硬件仓位或者做对冲，而不是满仓状态去迎接业绩期～
很多LO二季度开始追芯片，卖软件，纯韭菜操作，就是因为就业绩差，要追指数配置，看看我置顶的推。 个人投资你老板是你自己，只需要向自己交代就好，机构的老板是ASSET OWNER，有业绩压力就肯定有时候要妥协，投资理念向业绩妥协，没办法，这个世界就是这么现实 引用 @TJ_Research：朋友，PM有业绩压力，我没有。 我接触的LO基金，今年全部跑输ACWI 5-10+%，全是出名的机构，主动基金过去几年是灾难区，就算是HF，今年不是5月份的追涨也是一塌糊涂。可以把今年HF的YTD一家家都列出来，没赚多少还DEGROSS，4月份他们敢追吗？
The (1-x) qualification to the rotation trade within the stock market away from tech that many seem to favor: Given tech's role in recent years as an engine of economic growth and a magnet for domestic and international capital, the wellbeing of the non-tech sector (1-x) could
昨天，今天市场都有谣言说有人爆仓了，看到今天网络安全都跌成这样，我的感觉也是可能有机构爆仓了，捡便宜吧
Lovely tribute to Perry Mehrling from @adam_tooze https://t.co/kqJ2TyCO2F (worth reading it, particularly the ending, while considering that Michael Woodford just won the Nobel for a model of the economy that explicitly has no money in it at all)
Is it bullish or bearish that SPX is down 2.1% from ATH close?
My thanks to Leslie Picker for an interesting conversation on CNBC’s Closing Bell. @CNBC #economy #markets @LesliePicker https://t.co/BtqYaN1wWx
Every week I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely Subscribe and read: https://t.co/TLUgiHQcfF
Bubble Talk: Tulips to Tech Rational Dissent Episode 013 Despite bubbly valuations, persistent market skepticism suggests the AI boom is expanding like 1996—not collapsing like 2000. -- Available on YT, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Overcast, etc. Chapters 00:00 - Introduction & https://t.co/zP8B4ZOu6i
Your occasional reminder that nobody has "lost control of the long end" of the bond market. The yield curve is flat. Yields are broadly high, from short to long, because inflation is persistently above-target. https://t.co/x8OigvaiSc
I have 0 clue what scenario you need this for but it doesn't make it any less cool 引用 @CARN0N：Highlights of all four stunts Tesla showed off with the new Roadster today. https://t.co/chP6QEuVMk
Apple very clearly launched the iPhone Duo prematurely based on the supply available just to get it to market earlier. I believe they knew they wouldn’t have a reasonable amount of supply until November at the earliest.
2026.42: Home At Last The best Stratechery content from the week of October 12, 2026, including what Apple is doing, SpaceX's appetite, and the title, takes, and the Washington Wizards. https://t.co/FeJjlxhHl6
I hope in this hypothetical case Susan gives Alex an earful in response. The markets are near ATH. If THIS isn't "good" time, when exactly would you want them to issue equity? Capital is going to be VERY important in this race. Issuing equity at the right time and optimizing for 引用 @RihardJarc：Ale
Shanu Mathew转述黄仁勋在最新一期 BG2 访谈中的说法，英伟达每吉瓦的内容价值超过400亿美元，前沿实验室约占其业务的25%–30%。基线计算约占三分之一，年增长率约为30%–40%；访谈还涉及AI收入是否支撑资本开支、2027年AI瓶颈及开放与封闭等话题。
Dylan Patel 预测，OpenAI 与 Anthropic 到 2027 年 12 月的合计收入可能达到 6000亿至7000亿美元。Anthropic 今年收入预计增长约 10 倍，从低于 100 亿美元升至高于 1000 亿美元的收入运行率；他还称 Anthropic 可能在 2028—2029 年达到约 1 万亿美元收入。
So weird that the signup flow for Apple Intelligence includes the line “Better for you if you turn me off.” Probably nothing, pizza bagels it is! https://t.co/Sy4eYlUJr2
Have any of the labs tried to do in history what they've done in math, like digitizing the relevant documents, having lots of historians in the loop, and throwing a few billion tokens at a question like "why did the industrial revolution happen when and where it did?"
The statement focuses on "online" and says nothing about in-store availability. Just "experiencing" it in-store. Not a good sign for day one in-store availability for those without pre-orders. 引用 @markgurman：Apple: "Demand for iPhone Duo, our first foldable iPhone, has been nothing short of extraor
最新@conferenceboard调查发现，近一半CEO预期未来三年AI将提升生产率并降低运营成本 https://t.co/yTaNSjJYs1 原文： Latest survey from @conferenceboard found that nearly half of CEOs expect AI to boost productivity and reduce operating costs over the next three years https://t.co/yTaNSjJYs1
网络安全、AI与地缘政治仍是CEO在2026年4季度的顶尖风险，且各项担忧较上季上升 @conferenceboard https://t.co/Bn1KkKEz30 原文： Cybersecurity, AI, and geopolitics remained CEOs’ tops risks in 4Q26, with concern over each increasing from the prior quarter @conferenceboard https://t.co/Bn1KkKEz30
10年期收益率与标普500的滚动相关性仍为负，尽管昨天出现了有趣的正相关走势 https://t.co/pJLtCt8zKG 原文： Rolling correlation between 10y yield and S&P 500 remains negative, notwithstanding yesterday’s interesting positive correlated move https://t.co/pJLtCt8zKG
如果你还怀疑AI能否“像你一样建模”，让 Opus 5.5 过一遍你最好的模型，看它——在几分钟内——理解发生了什么、把规则编码成可复用于其他标的的流程，并构建可信/连贯的模型。是否总完美，尤其对定制或复杂东西？不是100%。但按月/年计的进步速度如此剧烈，已经明显在接近。 模型从来不是全部。它们有用是因为它们要求你去做的思考与工作。你如何思考、用什么框架铺开、收集什么证据来约束输入、哪些杠杆最影响结果区间。 很多人以为自己通过原始努力贡献的价值，正被机器接管。金融对“你的增值是什么”一向冷酷；若不进化，未来会很难过。 【被引推文 @BoringBiz_】做个比谁都强的Excel猴子已经