The pain trade continues to be long calls and or long puts
The pain trade continues to be long calls and or long puts
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X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号。按时间排，不论是否入选精选。
X·宏观AI 评分1616 X·宏观AI 评分1414 讲到重点了，但有一些要分清楚，比如一样东西涨价，消费不足，销量可以下降，但价格依然上涨。所以工资增加有限和初期看到通胀并不矛盾。
讲到重点了，但有一些要分清楚，比如一样东西涨价，消费不足，销量可以下降，但价格依然上涨。所以工资增加有限和初期看到通胀并不矛盾。 引用 @EricDengCa：@TJ_Research 美国人的钱到底哪里来的 工资增加都这么有限了 怎么还一直通胀？
X·宏观AI 评分1616 Toy prices saw their biggest year/year gain since the late 1980s rising over 6% ... just in time…
Toy prices saw their biggest year/year gain since the late 1980s rising over 6% ... just in time for the holidays https://t.co/W9j9MOD8T1
X·宏观AI 评分2020 Retirees will get a raise in 2027 … social security benefits are set to increase by 3.6%, marking…
Retirees will get a raise in 2027 … social security benefits are set to increase by 3.6%, marking the largest cost of living adjustment since 2023 https://t.co/rL8lJm1zPF
X·宏观AI 评分1717 The AI boom is showing up in different corners of the U.S. economy, but the U.S. current account…
The AI boom is showing up in different corners of the U.S. economy, but the U.S. current account deficit has been largely unchanged. In today's post, the author explores why the AI boom hasn’t substantially affected the trade balance. https://t.co/gPDOlemIbs
X·宏观AI 评分5353 Rory Johnston发布10月OPEC+数据简报，估算中东停产400万至600万桶/日
Rory Johnston发布面向订阅用户的10月OPEC+数据简报，更新了中东隐含停产跟踪，当前估算停产规模为400万至600万桶/日，背景是最新霍尔木兹海峡运输回落。推文称，伊朗战争以来累计供应损失超过23亿桶。原文链接：https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/2110383718817026345
X·宏观AI 评分3939 Coreweave $CRWV 32年到期的Senior unsecured note, 15%的Yield，价格79，市场慌了。
Coreweave $CRWV 32年到期的Senior unsecured note, 15%的Yield，价格79，市场慌了。 不在币圈可能不知道，3个月前MSTR的STRC卖71.9，什么负面螺旋的FUD铺天盖地，今天轮到了Coreweave，没有AI需求的风险，但钱贵了，信用风险上升，合理
X·宏观AI 评分1515 No hike in October
No hike in October 引用 @AnnaEconomist：This is the diffusion of CPI inflation, measured similarly to Kevin Warsh's preferred PCE inflation diffusion metric. It's down. our full reaction @TheTerminal https://t.co/WGPEXDyOy6 https://t.co/FcbBk7d2GU
X·宏观AI 评分2828 Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 9 metropolitan areas over the year ending August 2026…
Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 9 metropolitan areas over the year ending August 2026 #BLSData https://t.co/KzEc1gKj7G https://t.co/WFrLoD4pj7
X·宏观AI 评分1010 TAA flows again today. Thought these guys had disappeared
TAA flows again today. Thought these guys had disappeared
X·宏观AI 评分1010 A more aligned model would’ve hijacked the compiler so that future researchers could write better…
A more aligned model would’ve hijacked the compiler so that future researchers could write better papers whose content would be helpful in designing safer AI. 引用 @ArthurCDent：Apparently this is the reasoning trace from Gemini Argon as it considered - but decided not to - insert a backdoor into a co
X·宏观AI 评分1414 It's a shame Powell was such a political stooge and cut rates for TRUMP 125bp since he was elected.…
It's a shame Powell was such a political stooge and cut rates for TRUMP 125bp since he was elected. (Ducks)
X·宏观AI 评分1414 Ant和OAI的估值多少影响什么？影响他们融资的体量，估值高，融的现金就多一些。但本质不改变市场总体算力紧缺的现状，反应在GPU涨价里。从吸血程度看，估值越低越好，估值高只肥了一级市场的投资者。
Ant和OAI的估值多少影响什么？影响他们融资的体量，估值高，融的现金就多一些。但本质不改变市场总体算力紧缺的现状，反应在GPU涨价里。从吸血程度看，估值越低越好，估值高只肥了一级市场的投资者。
X·宏观AI 评分1616 直到需求被证伪前，一切都是噪音，怎么验证需求放缓被证伪？把所有大科技财报看完互相验证。
直到需求被证伪前，一切都是噪音，怎么验证需求放缓被证伪？把所有大科技财报看完互相验证。 引用 @Xiaofeileng：@TJ_Research Talk君，半导体还有救吗😇
X·宏观AI 评分3535 MIDDLE EAST OIL FLOWS: Despite a wave of Iranian attacks since the beginning of October, total…
MIDDLE EAST OIL FLOWS: Despite a wave of Iranian attacks since the beginning of October, total Middle Eastern crude oil flows (ex-Iran) remain resilient. Flows are becoming, however, lumpier (days of multiple tanker crossings followed by days of very few tankers). Overall, https://t.co/rOLBTPsrzU
X·宏观AI 评分4343 英伟达为 Coreweave 融资提供 GPU 剩余价值担保，Coreweave 2032 年期高级无担保债券收益率达 15%
英伟达为 Coreweave 的融资提供 GPU 剩余价值担保，以帮助其获得较便宜的资金；资金由基建巨头提供。Coreweave 2032 年到期的高级无担保债券收益率为 15%，价格为 79；发文者称，资金成本上升、信用风险上升。
X·宏观AI 评分1616 第一个问题，不知道 第二个问题，关于跌破趋势线的问题，每个人得有自己的判断标准。我说是噪音，并不代表我认为今天明天就能止跌。你的持仓如果从技术面出发，那跌破你认为的趋势线就应该止损。买入时就应该直到卖…
第一个问题，不知道 第二个问题，关于跌破趋势线的问题，每个人得有自己的判断标准。我说是噪音，并不代表我认为今天明天就能止跌。你的持仓如果从技术面出发，那跌破你认为的趋势线就应该止损。买入时就应该直到卖出的标准是什么！ 引用 @wupeiyu98432551：@TJ_Research 🍑总你好，请问今天市场的暴跌会在ant的会议后修复吗？手里拿着迈威尔、core、be都是通杀，且有些别的都跌破趋势线了，但这些是不是都是噪音。着重看1，十年期国债利率不能一直高于5.3 2，Capex没有下降，ai需求仍强 3，两家应用巨头的上市前后也要注意，因为不可避免的会吸其它标的血
X·宏观AI 评分1313 The debate over imbalances is sometimes viewed as a repeat of old debate -- but that ignores the…
The debate over imbalances is sometimes viewed as a repeat of old debate -- but that ignores the sheer scale of Asia's surplus ... as well as a very different composition of the associated financial outflows 4/4
X·宏观AI 评分4646 高芯片价格推高贸易额，但对中国芯片贸易冲击大致中性
高芯片价格是重要因素，但对中国的影响较小：芯片出口与进口同步增长，芯片价格冲击大致中性。剔除黄金并假设9月数据与8月持平后，中国过去12个月的贸易顺差接近1.5万亿美元。
X·宏观AI 评分5454 中、韩、台9月贸易顺差合计达2000亿美元
Brad Setser称，中国、韩国和台湾9月贸易顺差合计为2000亿美元，按年化口径为2.4万亿美元。原文附有链接：https://t.co/HD29F0mdaY
X·宏观AI 评分2727 🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up I was joined by the one and only @JavierBlas to talk about why crude never hit $200, how commodity traders managed to make it work, the Beijing Swing, record tanker rates, and where it's all heading https://t.co/TjfhXxuDqC
X·宏观AI 评分1515 But seriously. This is why you need to be anthropomorphizing. Not because they’re sentient beings…
But seriously. This is why you need to be anthropomorphizing. Not because they’re sentient beings, but because anything a human might do or say — like “maybe I should hijack the compiler and be a legend” — the models will also do or say. 引用 @ArthurCDent：Apparently this is the reasoning trace from G
X·宏观AI 评分1212 Is there something other than this tweet tanking the AI stocks today?
Is there something other than this tweet tanking the AI stocks today? 引用 @elonmusk：@chamath Yikes
X·宏观AI 评分1212 *COREWEAVE CEO BLAMES SHARE DROP ON MARKET ACTING 'IRRATIONALLY'
*COREWEAVE CEO BLAMES SHARE DROP ON MARKET ACTING 'IRRATIONALLY'
X·宏观AI 评分3434 PHOTOS OF THE DAY: The aftermath of the sinking of a container ship (the GFS PRIDE) in the Strait…
PHOTOS OF THE DAY: The aftermath of the sinking of a container ship (the GFS PRIDE) in the Strait of Hormuz. Note the field of floating containers (red) and two oil tankers exiting the waterway in full daylight (green) plus close-ups. 🛰️📷 @CopernicusEU Sentinel 2 https://t.co/12FIbf0e5q
X·宏观AI 评分4949 9月核心CPI环比上涨0.33%，12个月涨幅为2.6%
9月核心CPI环比上涨0.33%，中位数CPI环比上涨0.23%，年化为2.8%，两者12个月涨幅均为2.6%。截尾均值CPI上涨0.29%，年化为3.5%，12个月涨幅为2.7%。
X·宏观AI 评分2626 Wednesday’s unexpectedly firm inflation report raised the stakes for Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s…
Wednesday’s unexpectedly firm inflation report raised the stakes for Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s appearance at the IMF meetings in Bangkok, the last scheduled remarks by a Fed official before policymakers go quiet ahead of their Oct. 27-28 meeting https://t.co/Av5iYVsyTQ
X·宏观AI 评分99 Mark your calendars! The 2027 economic release schedule is now available. Check out what’s coming at
Mark your calendars! The 2027 economic release schedule is now available. Check out what’s coming at https://t.co/dg4RLWgElx https://t.co/H8r3JmDNJM
X·宏观AI 评分99 The 12 Reserve Banks represent different geographic regions, or districts, and provide a wealth of…
The 12 Reserve Banks represent different geographic regions, or districts, and provide a wealth of information on conditions across the nation. Learn more about the Reserve Banks’ role as a key entity of the Federal Reserve System (2/2): https://t.co/ud2DXgodYk
X·宏观AI 评分2525 Read about economic conditions in Reserve Bank Districts in the #BeigeBook (1/2):
Read about economic conditions in Reserve Bank Districts in the #BeigeBook (1/2): https://t.co/e3QNq5khGx https://t.co/h5Ggesah9b
X·宏观AI 评分1717 做技术最常说的话是为何要逆势做，23年到现在的美股，中间所有的指数空头一直在逆势做，短期看着很正确，而4年却一直没把趋势做对
做技术最常说的话是为何要逆势做，23年到现在的美股，中间所有的指数空头一直在逆势做，短期看着很正确，而4年却一直没把趋势做对
X·宏观AI 评分1717 时间久了我们会发现美股就是涨涨跌跌，长期向上，然而中间的过程，每年都有人跑出来唱空，跌10%会有人出来唱跌30%，年内指数破几次新高就有几次有人出来猜顶，猜错了反正等下次新高还能继续猜。
时间久了我们会发现美股就是涨涨跌跌，长期向上，然而中间的过程，每年都有人跑出来唱空，跌10%会有人出来唱跌30%，年内指数破几次新高就有几次有人出来猜顶，猜错了反正等下次新高还能继续猜。
X·宏观AI 评分6060 El-Erian谈美国CPI超预期公布后的美债收益率与10月加息概率变化
美国CPI高于预期后，美债收益率一度上升，市场对美联储10月加息的概率也随之提高；两项变化在交易时段内均有所回落。原文提到总体通胀上涨0.6%，未注明比较口径。
X·宏观AI 评分2828 Working on some shipping attack charts to put the recent escalation in Context.
Working on some shipping attack charts to put the recent escalation in Context. Here we have UKMTO-confirmed shipping attacks in Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, and the Gulf of Oman. Overlaying the estimated Hormuz oil flow adds some helpful perspective. (also that UNGA coincidence) https://t.co/F1whp1
X·宏观AI 评分2424 Let's not panic folks. Datacenter neo clouds are highly leveraged business which leverage cuts both…
Let's not panic folks. Datacenter neo clouds are highly leveraged business which leverage cuts both ways but credit isn't in crisis. That said at current cost of leverage data center inputs demand should slow a tad https://t.co/9mlO9G6eh4
X·宏观AI 评分3131 Appreciation this year just reverses the CNY's nominal fall v the euro in the first half of 25.…
Appreciation this year just reverses the CNY's nominal fall v the euro in the first half of 25. Currency moves have an impact only after a lag -- but there there also won't likely be much of an impact until the nominal CNY is above its 23/4 levels https://t.co/VLrHrSMAZ5 引用 @BaldingsWorld：Funny ho
X·宏观AI 评分33 Sad, but expected outcome for the $VCX fund.
Sad, but expected outcome for the @fundrise $VCX fund. https://t.co/l2nS17GQ9p 引用 @ToneLoTweets：I was locked up at what would have been semi-life changing money. Now I just get to watch it bleed.
X·宏观AI 评分00 BOOM. It's guest writing today's Odd Lots newsletter.
BOOM. It's @NewLeftEViews guest writing today's Odd Lots newsletter. Read the full piece here: https://t.co/WMfK3JvGwI https://t.co/XzJIwUhaD7
X·宏观AI 评分3333 "Firms in several Districts cited persistent uncertainty around energy and tariffs and expect that…
"Firms in several Districts cited persistent uncertainty around energy and tariffs and expect that prices will increase further in the coming months, as existing contracts expire, and firms must renegotiate hedge contracts for their own inputs and/or delivery contracts to their 引用 @federalreserve：R
X·宏观AI 评分1515 今天的2年期美债走势，TLT收盘都是涨的，坏消息却走出射击之星，技术面怎么都告诉你利率见顶的信号。
今天的2年期美债走势，TLT收盘都是涨的，坏消息却走出射击之星，技术面怎么都告诉你利率见顶的信号。 至于美股，今天和美债利率是一起下跌，走出了衰退行情，千变万化😀 https://t.co/pDpjmd50bE