X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号。按时间排，不论是否入选精选。
would love to see the accounting that includes Chinese made inputs (mechanically, higher prices of Korean made chips and for that matter Canadian oil will reduce China's import share; I am interested in numbers that account directly for embedded Chinese content) 引用 @BaldingsWorld：Let's be clear, t
a 1 pp shift in the composition of output would normally lead to a shift of ~ 1.3m jobs (US economy has 130m jobs at the time). the lower estimate reflects the standard view the traded goods sector is more productive than some service sectors, so less job intense
Standard ballpark calculations would support the argument that the surge in Chinese imports (~1 pp pf GDP, which drove a similar increase in non oil imports) would lead to a reduction in manufacturing employment of ~ 1m (1/4 of the 3.5 or so lost in early 00s) ... especially as 引用 @joefrancis505：Th
and kind of shocked that there isn't general recognition that the ten years after China entered the WTO were not in aggregate great years for the US economy (jobless recovery, housing bubble fueled by imbalances, global financial crisis, great recession) -- certainly they weren't
EPS压制PE的美股，献给还在刻舟求剑，疑惑利率上涨，英伟达没像22年那种下跌却破新高的各位。
Dr Setser citing Autor et al. on the "China shock": "People in those communities experienced bad job market outcomes, bad economic outcomes for many years. So that’s kind of the background. It changed a little bit how many economists think about the cost of trade." Dr Setser https://t.co/pQVmhnlJL
The Trump 1 tariffs did have some positive effects -- notably insulating the US auto sector from the second China shock. I have not seen any real evidence that the 2.5% tariff differential between China and Europe is doing much at all* 2/2
Imports from China started to rise in 21/22 (notably of batteries) -- but on the export side, European auto exports looked resilient going into 2023 ... and then the bottom fell out in the Chinese market (UK's importance to Europe is also obvious in this chart) https://t.co/ao7PTcpXNX
The change to Europe's trade in key sectors occurred quite quickly. The overall balance in say autos was pretty stable going into 2024. It has now fallen in 1/2 if batteries (in HS 85) and added to the total https://t.co/7Pi3KgMUSv 引用 @SanderTordoir：A change of tune in the business community.
If you have been worried sick about this... --- (Bloomberg) -- Elon Musk is a trillionaire again. The fortune of the world’s richest person jumped by $65 billion on Monday to $1.04 trillion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, as the value of his stakes in SpaceX and
Trump says “Canada does all their business with us, we do very little business with them.” Sure looks like a lot of red to me, and I think some of those states might be important in an upcoming election 🤷🏻♂️ https://t.co/1rChTt99ch 引用 @atrupar：Trump: "Canada behaves very badly with the United S
Apple and a Hacker's Future I was happy for years in Apple's walled garden; with AI, however, their protections feel like limitations. https://t.co/aoNmGjTjp0
Heat rate vs installed cost of various time to power offerings https://t.co/rYZbpSWfDd
SynMax将美国2026年gross GW部署预期从14–16上调至16–18。Jefferies hosted SynMax，修订反映已开工项目推进加快，尤其是劳动力和资本从准备度较低的项目重新配置的情况。
Shanu Mathew称，UBS预计全球年度机架容量部署将从2026E的26.5 GW升至2030E的104.5 GW，其中50.5 GW将用于Nvidia。作者以ERCOT当前约90GW的峰值负荷作对照，称部署全部容量相当于满足ERCOT目前的峰值负荷；原文列出$NVDA、$GOOGL、$AMD、$MSFT、$META、$ORCL和$AMZN。
贝恩全球基准情景预计，到2030年数据中心IT容量累计净增约149 GW。年度新增量预计从2026年的约20 GW升至2029—2030年的36 GW；美国约占新增容量的50%—67%，近期占比可能更高。
Per reports, both Microsoft and Meta with significant cuts. Given Anthropic’s revenue concentration and contribution from top 2 customers (of which many people assume Meta was), this could be a meaningful drag on the trajectory of growth. Token cost optimization era has began in 引用 @amir：Microsoft
COLUMN: Your oil columnist ditched his gasoline car and bought an EV. “The oil crises of 1973-1979 dramatically reduced the rate of global oil demand growth. Will the current shock do the same? It’s early days, but the parallels are striking.” @opinion https://t.co/tuxKIK9ZLb
OKX与ICE合资公司计划向SEC提交申请，提出建立代币化股票交易平台。作者称这是SEC代币化创新豁免政策框架下的首例申请，也是合资公司自6月正式成立后首次公布业务进展；成立时双方曾宣布将共同开发代币化证券等金融产品、机构级数字资产衍生品和24/7相关业务。
USAID engaged in election interference and regime change around the world, causing massive strife 引用 @MikeBenzCyber：Here’s a shocking statistic you may not know. USAID more than doubled its spending on Brazil as soon Bolsonaro won their 2018 election. This was not because Brazil suddenly needed twi
OAI and Ant are also at ~30-40% inference with the rest allocated for training It’s one of the most important assumptions in all of compute/tokenomics because it dictates how much compute is monetized and the monetization rate As these guys all scale from 1-2 gigs to 5 GW and 引用 @jukan05：Appare
I get the call out on aggressive valuations for the labs (which should be litigated in public and we’ll see how the IPOs do) but comparing multiples or against historical revenue without accounting for growth (amongst the fastest we’ve ever seen in capitalism) and the rapid 引用 @craigweiss：if meta w
基于 Coherenr 专家访谈，文章估算 COHR 可插拔光模块业绩：800G 与 1.6T 产品合计销售额预计从 2025 年的 41.9 亿美元增至 2026E 的 62.6 亿美元。文中还引用观点称，Cohr 经营效率低于 Lite，但基本面并不差。
Last week was mainly about bond market volatility, with evidence of spillover, and continued equity market resilience due to data and Fedspeak. This week, we get the Fed minutes and lots of interesting data. For more details, please see one of the links below for my weekly note
亚马逊正探索对英伟达芯片进行约80亿美元的售后回租，以已安装硬件融资，同时保留算力。亚马逊还拟向投资者提供该融资载体最高10%的股权，并借此拓展公司债以外的融资渠道。
Shanu Mathew称，JERA、Dell与RHAELM宣布一项在日本建设400MW数据中心园区的MOU；Apollo的融资角色被描述为意向。400MW约相当于日本约1.8GW在运营数据中心市场按名义MW计算规模的五分之一，尚未扣除设施开销。正文提到3–4GW的规划规模和1400亿美元的总资本支出目标，但原文在“roughly 8–10”处截断。
The most interesting cut of the labor market data from yesterday. https://t.co/v0ydXQk959 引用 @EPBResearch：A new cycle high for cyclical payrolls. https://t.co/9OcEXfq4wU
Reuters: “A large plume of smoke and fire was seen rising in the vicinity of an Aramco facility in Riyadh on Saturday” https://t.co/tYnedQpCTm
Actual amount that SpaceX saved taxpayers is even higher now 引用 @TeslaLarry：The Washington Post famously claimed Elon Musk's companies received $38B from US governments. The truth? Elon Musk's company, SpaceX, SAVED the US Government (and taxpayers) an estimated $14B. I've covered that in detail in
I think you are translating the SV experience - employees, management, etc. Meet many leaders from a variety of cap sizes that do not really play around with AI at all despite communicating that their company is heavily investing into it Average person I know has never vibe 引用 @krishnanrohit：Eve
OpenAI and Anthropic are the two largest customers of compute and rumors are they both run 30-40% inference so training definitionally has to be bigger than inference today? 引用 @jessiedong_：inference will be the biggest market. it's already bigger than training and I bet this is going to change how
Reason people aren’t controlling the full stack is the capital intensity Hypers will and can underwire the power, shells, chips, etc Others like neos and managed inference provides can barely execute the IT before trying to move upstream This is a capital problem vs lack of 引用 @kellyjgreer：lot
I fully agree here but I think one thing that’s under appreciated is people talking about the duration mismatch Lot of forward credit for TAM penetration x steady state economics when in reality extremely early in usage and adoption That means compute demand going up but it 引用 @nicbstme：This is m
Brother, what will your ARR do That answers your capex question 引用 @firesidealpha：Anthropic's Sholto Douglas says AI capex could rise from $1 trillion this year to $4 trillion in 2028 and begin doubling humanity’s GDP by the early 2030s “Over the course of the last four or five years, we’ve been
You literally could open this app and see 100 of these “The market is asleep at the wheel. I’ve found the next HUGE AI bottleneck. Follow me for more posts like this” *stock up 5,000% in the last 6 months already* **half the time it was literally just pitching nvidia again** 引用 @ParadisLabs：I'm p
Citadel is impressive man, consistently putting up #s 引用 @nishantkumar07：We have some initial hedge fund returns for September. Looks like machines scored a win over humans. Traders faced a volatility month as inflation concerns pushed bond yields to multidecade highs and hit fixed-income wagers. h
Axios' @mikeallen asks Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent if he regrets saying "I am the house now." Bessent: "No, because look, the house doesn't win every hand. The house plays percentages." https://t.co/W7JkS3WqAV
图表显示，政府利息支出已升至 GDP 的 3.2%，为 60 多年来高位；非金融企业利息支出降至 GDP 的 0.7%，为 60 多年来低位。
Markets Weekly October 3, 2026 Bonds behave badly Le spread Anthropic IPO https://t.co/z4A7UCjuDI
S&P 500 Technology stocks have been main beneficiaries of this year’s AI trade, up 30% YTD; Communication Services, buoyed by Meta, has more recently joined rally (S&P 500’s best performers in September); yet, credit markets are signalling greater caution; option-adjusted spreads https://t.co/NjNtKd