美联储下次会议是否加息仍存分歧，市场加息概率上升
市场参与者和经济学家对美联储是否会在两周后再次加息25个基点意见不一。
#债券/利率
外媒与科技媒体长文、研究号文章
MarketWatchAI 评分4343 彭博利空AI 评分5050 美联储褐皮书显示部分地区价格压力加剧
美联储褐皮书显示，近期12个联邦储备区中有一半的价格压力强劲或正在加剧。调查称，能源价格上涨已传导至地方经济。
MarketWatch利空AI 评分1313 Will mortgage rates stay above 7% in 2027?
Two new forecasts spell bad news for home buyers and sellers
彭博利空AI 评分3232 Chile’s Sudden Pension Fund Losses Draw Fire From Lawmakers
Chilean lawmakers are seeking explanations from regulators over how privately managed pension funds were allowed to build up massive bets on US interest rates that are now triggering heavy losses.
Axios同新闻AI 评分7676 美国9月CPI同比上涨3.7%，核心CPI近三个月年化上涨3.4%
美国9月CPI环比上涨0.6%，同比上涨3.7%；核心CPI环比连续第二个月上涨0.3%，同比涨幅从2.4%升至2.6%。近三个月核心CPI年化涨幅为3.4%，住房、二手车和机票价格也上涨。报告发布后，两年期美债收益率上升约12个基点，交易员预计10月27日至28日美联储会议加息25个基点的概率升至47%。
同一新闻，精选展示《美国9月未季调核心CPI同比升至2.6%，季调后月率为0.3%》
彭博利空AI 评分1616 Muni Market’s Main Growth Driver Set to Slow After Yield Spike
State and local governments are holding off on refinancing debt after municipal bond yields spiked last month, raising the prospect of tighter supply in the fourth quarter, according to Nuveen.
彭博利空AI 评分3636 US Private Credit Stress Masked by Growing PIK Use, Moody’s Says
Borrowers in the US private debt market are using delayed interest payments and maturity extensions to avoid default, potentially masking the overall extent of credit stress, according to Moody’s Ratings.
彭博利空重大AI 评分5959 美国通胀高于预期后交易员增加对美联储加息的押注
美国通胀数据高于预期后，美债下跌，交易员增加了对美联储本月晚些时候和明年加息的押注。视频中，Rosenberg Research创始人David Rosenberg和Bianco Research创始人Jim Bianco回应9月CPI。
彭博利空重大AI 评分3232 CoreWeave Bonds Tumble Into Distress, Drawing ‘Yikes’ From Musk
CoreWeave Inc.’s bonds have plunged to levels that typically indicate distress, in a swift move that has caught the attention of Silicon Valley leaders including Chamath Palihapitiya and Elon Musk.
财富利空重大AI 评分2626 Inflation runs hotter than expected at 3.7% in September, the last CPI report before the midterms
The figures will likely underscore the lingering impact of the Iran war on gas prices and the persistence of inflation
路透社利空AI 评分2121 Fed rate hike call seen tight as inflation heats up - Reuters
Fed rate hike call seen tight as inflation heats up Reuters
彭博AI 评分3232 ECB’s Simkus Says Inflation Pressures Point to More Tightening
The European Central Bank may need to raise interest rates again because data suggest price pressures keep building, Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said.
彭博利空AI 评分6464 美国通胀高于预期后，美债下跌，交易员上调美联储加息预期
美国通胀高于预期后，美债下跌，交易员上调对美联储本月晚些时候及明年加息的预期。原文未提供通胀数据、幅度或美联储官员表态的更多细节。
CNBC利空AI 评分00 Consumer prices rose at 3.7% annual rate in September as gas costs skyrocket
The consumer price index was expected to increase 0.6% in September on a monthly basis and 3.6% from a year ago, according to the Dow Jones consensus forecast.
彭博AI 评分1818 US Mortgage Rates Hit 7.5%, Extending Slump in Home Buying
US mortgage rates continue to rise, pushing down home purchasing activity for a sixth straight week.
CNBC利空AI 评分2424 Even more borrowers choose riskier mortgages, as higher interest rates crush affordability
Interest rates on mortgages continue to rise, leaving some buyers to choose riskier, adjustable-rate mortgages to find savings.
彭博利空AI 评分4141 IMF警告高收益率与高债务使各国政府陷入困境
IMF警告，高收益率与高债务叠加，可能使各国政府陷入困境。
彭博AI 评分2020 Venezuela’s Ortega Said Next Step on Debt Rework Due ‘Very Soon’
Venezuela’s Economy Vice President Calixto Ortega said the publication of the country’s debt sustainability assessment was delayed by the massive twin earthquakes earlier this year but remains “a priority.”
CNBC利好AI 评分2424 U.S. Treasury yields inch lower as investors await key inflation report
U.S. Treasury yields inched lower on Wednesday as investors awaited the latest CPI inflation reading ahead of a flurry of economic data this week.
卫报利好AI 评分2323 IMF sounds alarm on rising government borrowing costs and cyber-attack risks – business live
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial newsGlobal financial system is failing developing countries, says Ed MilibandElsewhere in Bangkok, Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill has suggested that the financial markets may be getting carried away by anticipating four increases in UK
彭博利空AI 评分2626 L&G Is Hedging Its Bond Purchases Against Risk of Selloff
Britain’s largest asset manager, Legal & General, is hedging its government bond purchases against the risk of a renewed selloff in global debt markets.
金融时报AI 评分55 Maybe R-star never even existed?
Ruffer chimes in
彭博利空AI 评分3636 BOT Deputy Governor Plans to Normalize Rates
Bank of Thailand Deputy Governor Piti Disyatat says the central bank will normalize rates at its own pace as the economy remains resilient. He spoke on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok. (Source: Bloomberg)
彭博利空AI 评分2525 ECB Will Probably Have to Hike Interest Rates Again, Wunsch Says
The European Central Bank will likely need to raise interest rates further, according to Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch.
路透社AI 评分2020 Dollar languishes as focus turns to CPI, Fed speakers - Reuters
Dollar languishes as focus turns to CPI, Fed speakers Reuters
彭博利空AI 评分1515 Thai Central Bank Signals 1% Rate Floor, Sees Eventual Hikes
The Bank of Thailand is unlikely to cut interest rates below the current 1% without a major economic shock and expects borrowing costs eventually to move higher as policy normalizes, according to Deputy Governor Piti Disyatat.
彭博利好AI 评分4343 基金经理称中国债券有望克服收益率低迷，表现继续领跑全球
部分基金经理看好中国债券进一步上涨，认为强势人民币和疲弱的国内经济提供支撑。中国债券已避开全球债券抛售潮。
路透社利空AI 评分4646 美联储柯林斯称2026年底前仍可能加息
美联储柯林斯称，2026年底前再次加息仍在考虑范围内。
IT之家AI 评分5656 欧洲央行首席经济学家莱恩称 AI 或削弱欧元区劳动者加薪议价能力
欧洲央行首席经济学家菲利普·莱恩称，欧元区企业采用 AI 可能削弱劳动者争取加薪的议价能力，抑制工资增长，并降低劳动报酬占总收入的比重。莱恩还指出，全球企业为投资 AI 大量举债推高借贷成本，长期利率上升使欧元区金融环境收紧；AI 也可能在长期提高经济潜在产出和趋势增长率。
彭博利空AI 评分2222 KKR Sees Bond Rout as Opening to Lock in High-Grade Asian Credit
The global bond rout is giving fixed-income investors a rare chance to lock in Asian junk bond-like payouts without the credit risk of such debt, according to KKR & Co.
CNBCAI 评分1414 Don't let inflation bite — how to hedge with TIPS, commodities and infrastructure funds
TIPS are looking attractive but they aren't the only way to get inflation protection.
彭博利空AI 评分5959 波士顿联储主席柯林斯称年内利率可能需要进一步上升以抑制通胀
波士顿联储主席苏珊·柯林斯表示，为抑制通胀，利率在今年年底前可能还需要进一步上升。
彭博利空AI 评分1919 Chile: AFP sufren pérdidas por apuestas a tasas de EE.UU.
La apuesta por una caída de las tasas no dio resultado. Ahora las AFP deben reducir sus posiciones en derivados justo cuando cerrar esos contratos resulta más costoso.
彭博AI 评分6565 美联储纽约联储主席威廉姆斯称今年适宜再加息一次，预计2027年无需进一步加息
美联储纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示，今年再加息一次是适宜的，但他认为2027年没有必要进一步加息。
彭博利空AI 评分2121 US Swaps Bets Backfire, Wiping Out Billions From Funds in Chile
The pension funds used by millions of Chileans are racing to close out bets on US interest rates that backfired after the Iran war unleashed a global inflation shock, exposing them to billions of dollars of losses.
彭博利空AI 评分1111 Lagarde Faces ECB Staff Questions Over Book, Talks With Fink
Christine Lagarde was invited by European Central Bank employees to explain how promotion of her book and negotiations on her next role stack up ethically.
彭博利空AI 评分3030 Bassman Warns of ‘Nightmare Scenario’ Amplifying US Bond Selloff
Harley Bassman, pioneer of one of the most widely followed indicators for US Treasuries, warns that a little-noticed feature of the market is threatening to worsen a monthslong selloff and push bond yields even higher.
经济学人AI 评分1616 How to lose money betting against Europe
In a sovereign-debt crisis, even understanding politics may not be enough
彭博AI 评分2222 Bond Traders Eclipsed by Equities in Rare Wall Street Reversal
As Wall Street’s fixed-income desks struggled in the third quarter, their rivals in equities seized a rare opening to outshine their market brethren.
彭博利空AI 评分4646 Ray Dalio警告美债抛售仍有很长的路要走
亿万富翁投资者Ray Dalio警告，美国债券抛售远未结束。政府和企业借款激增之际，部分全球最大传统买家的需求正在减弱。