美联储主席沃什未释放加息信号，市场定价10月FOMC“鹰派按兵不动”
美联储主席沃什没有释放可能加息的信号，市场定价加息概率为14%。结合近期美联储关键决策者的讲话，作者认为10月FOMC会议可能“鹰派按兵不动”。
#美联储
X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号。按时间排，不论是否入选精选。
X·grokAI 评分4141 X·宏观AI 评分2929 BUSINESS LEADERS SURVEY → Business activity in the New York-Northern New Jersey region’s service…
BUSINESS LEADERS SURVEY → Business activity in the New York-Northern New Jersey region’s service sector declined significantly in October. Employment was flat, and price increases remained widespread. Firms turned somewhat pessimistic about the outlook. Learn more: https://t.co/we32VREUAg
X·宏观AI 评分3838 Even though Federal Reserve Chair Warsh emphasized that he doesn’t "prejudge meetings" and that the…
Even though Federal Reserve Chair Warsh emphasized that he doesn’t "prejudge meetings" and that the Fed is no longer in the business of forward guidance, markets have interpreted his remarks at the IMF meetings in Thailand as dovish when it comes to an October rate action.
X·宏观AI 评分4949 美国9月工业生产总量增长0.7%，制造业、公共事业和采矿业均增长
美国9月工业生产总量增长0.7%，其中制造业增长0.3%、公共事业增长3.5%、采矿业增长0.2%；产能利用率为76.9%。
X·宏观AI 评分4040 美联储主席 Kevin Warsh：AI 将通过改善预测从根本上改变货币政策的实施
美联储主席 Kevin Warsh 表示，AI 将通过改善预测从根本上改变货币政策的实施。他说，未来不久，分析通胀趋势时就不必再用老式模型“折磨”数据。
X·宏观AI 评分2121 Markets positioned for a “hawkish hold” at October FOMC meeting
Markets positioned for a “hawkish hold” at October FOMC meeting https://t.co/NUIFkLd7uq
X·宏观AI 评分4646 鲍曼、古尔斯比等美联储官员称降息暂无紧迫性，沃什回应市场指引
至少五名美联储官员在过去两周公开表示降息没有紧迫性；美联储主席凯文·沃什谈及向市场提供指引时称，“我们不做这类事”。引用内容称，鲍曼在 CPI 发布前表示需要时间观察经济变化；古尔斯比的发言未完整显示。
X·宏观AI 评分1313 Kevin Warsh's quip definitely got a laugh from the audience in Bangkok.
Kevin Warsh's quip definitely got a laugh from the audience in Bangkok. "Kristalina, you pronounce it A.I. In the U.S. we now pronounce it S.I., just so you know."😆 https://t.co/uZlsy0IhVz 引用 @vtg2：Fed Chair Kevin Warsh threading the needle by joking(?) that in the US, AI is now called "SI," and
X·宏观AI 评分2323 Now available: Weekly data on the H.8 release, Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the…
Now available: Weekly data on the H.8 release, Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States #FedData https://t.co/WeJhdaARrt
X·宏观AI 评分2828 本该是强化10月加息预期的时候，但沃什却没有这么做。今天在泰国曼谷与IMF总裁展开炉边谈话的时候，沃什表示2026年剩余的两次议息会议将是形成明确政策判断的关键时刻。因为前两天9月cpi和ppi的强势…
本该是强化10月加息预期的时候，但沃什却没有这么做。今天在泰国曼谷与IMF总裁展开炉边谈话的时候，沃什表示2026年剩余的两次议息会议将是形成明确政策判断的关键时刻。因为前两天9月cpi和ppi的强势，大家想通过沃什的讲话看出有没有透露出“加息的紧迫性”，但他没有说“通胀风险正在加剧、可能需要进一 引用 @qinbafrank：如果说上周五看到了📉的风险，那么这两天又看到了可以低买的机会。几个逻辑：
X·宏观AI 评分3939 沃什在泰国的采访结束了，一句话总结：往窗外看（窗外有啥？）
沃什在泰国的采访结束了，一句话总结：往窗外看（窗外有啥？） 没有给任何指引，多数问题都和通胀，货币政策无关，唯一他有聊到“过去一个月基本和我们预期的一样，接下去还有两次会议”
X·grokAI 评分4949 沃什称近期AI投资激增得益于“良好政策”，并拒绝暗示10月FOMC讨论
沃什称，近期由AI带来的大规模投资激增并非偶然，而是“良好政策”的结果，并称AI繁荣可能是全球经济最重要的上行因素。他表示不预判会议，也不暗示10月FOMC讨论可能采取的行动。
X·grokAI 评分2828 沃什主席参加2026年国际货币基金组织和世界银行集团年会的炉边对话
沃什主席参加2026年国际货币基金组织和世界银行集团年会的炉边对话 观看直播：https://t.co/H1AKaTiGhT 了解更多关于沃什主席：https://t.co/b8iRmcfSbS 原文： Chairman Warsh participates in a fireside chat at the 2026 Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group Watch live: https://t.co/H1AKaTiGhT Learn more about Chair
X·grokAI 评分2929 自大衰退到2019年，美国劳动生产率增长令人失望，但自2019年以来增长……
自大衰退到2019年，美国劳动生产率增长令人失望，但自2019年以来增长…… 原文： From the Great Recession until 2019, U.S. labor productivity growth disappointed but, since 2019, growth has picked up to twice the 2010s rate: around 2%. In today's post, the author uses data from firms’ 10-K filings to unpack this recent acceleration. ht
X·grokAI 评分3838 尽管本周CPI与PPI都热于预期，十年期收益率仍下行。
尽管本周CPI与PPI都热于预期，十年期收益率仍下行。 原文： 10-year yield down despite CPI and PPI coming in hotter than expected this week. https://t.co/N4H2O0yLyN https://t.co/WePZzQYJj6 引用 @TheStalwart：We've had two hot inflation prints in a row, and yet rates have been sliding. The entire market is all about the AI trad
X·grokAI 评分2323 9月喂入PCE（美联储偏爱通胀指标）的PPI分项
9月喂入PCE（美联储偏爱通胀指标）的PPI分项 https://t.co/mIJvNffT4E 原文： September PPI components that feed into PCE (Fed’s preferred measure of #inflation) https://t.co/mIJvNffT4E
X·宏观AI 评分1717 Why are US government bond yields falling despite hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI inflation prints…
Why are US government bond yields falling despite hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI inflation prints (CNBC chart below)? I suspect it comes down to two main drivers, with the second having more implications for the well-being of the US and global economies: A flight to quality https://t.co/DPn00Fgg
X·宏观AI 评分3434 Last round of Fed-speak before Warsh tonight and the October blackout. All of these comments were…
Last round of Fed-speak before Warsh tonight and the October blackout. All of these comments were made Wednesday: Bowman (a few hours *before* CPI): "I don't feel any urgency... We really need to take some time and understand how things will evolve within the economy." Goolsbee
X·宏观AI 评分1818 Interactive guide to our weekly #BalanceSheet report: #FedData
Interactive guide to our weekly #BalanceSheet report: https://t.co/75xiVY3BGu #FedData
X·宏观AI 评分4444 9月CPI和PPI指向核心PCE月涨幅或达0.34%，为1月以来最高
9月CPI和PPI数据推算显示，核心PCE月涨幅预计约为0.34%，或创1月以来最高。核心PCE同比涨幅或从8月的3%升至3.1%，3个月年化涨幅或从2.0%升至2.9%。
X·grokAI 评分3737 监管副主席鲍曼（Bowman）关于硅谷银行（Silicon Valley Bank）事件后监管现代化的讲话：
监管副主席鲍曼（Bowman）关于硅谷银行（Silicon Valley Bank）事件后监管现代化的讲话：https://t.co/1cboQnCXKz 观看直播：https://t.co/bzEEBXfuyT 了解更多关于监管副主席鲍曼的信息：https://t.co/tWe5lT37NX 原文： Speech by Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman on supervisory modernization after Silicon Valley Bank: https://t.co/1cboQnCXKz Watch live: https://t.c
X·grokAI 评分5353 作者分析BLS特殊聚合指数中的9月美国CPI分项
作者根据BLS Table 3称，剔除食品、住房和能源后，9月CPI同比约+2.0%、环比约0.3–0.4%；进一步剔除二手车后，同比约+2.3%、环比约0.3–0.4%。文中将这些读数与整体核心CPI同比2.6%作比较，并指出美联储更关注PCE，9月PCE数据要到月底公布；作者还提及明日的PPI数据。
X·grokAI 评分6565 美国9月核心CPI环比上涨0.33%，三个月年化率升至3.4%
美国9月核心CPI环比上涨0.33%，比多数预测者预期高约0.1个百分点。三个月年化率从8月的2%升至3.4%。原文链接：https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/2110348680968761383
X·宏观AI 评分2222 更正一下，明天美东晚上11：30，沃什在泰国有个采访
更正一下，明天美东晚上11：30，沃什在泰国有个采访
X·宏观AI 评分5151 投资TALK君谈9月核心数据环比及分项变化
投资TALK君称，9月核心环比为0.33%，高于预期的0.22%。房租环比0.4%，交通幅度0.6%，作者将交通变化归因于高油价；二手车价格环比0.7%。
X·宏观AI 评分5151 美国9月CPI环比上涨0.6%，核心CPI环比上涨0.3%
美国9月CPI环比上涨0.6%，核心CPI环比上涨0.3%。食品价格环比持平，能源价格上涨5.2%；核心商品上涨0.3%，核心服务上涨0.4%。住房上涨0.4%、酒店上涨2.3%、机票上涨1.2%，汽车租赁上涨5.4%。
X·宏观AI 评分4141 美联储10月不加息证据：9月CPI特殊聚合指数
文章指出，若美联储要从9月CPI数据中寻找10月不加息的证据，可看BLS Table 3中的特殊聚合指数：剔除食品、住房和能源后，该指数同比约上涨2.0%，环比约上涨0.3%至0.4%。
X·宏观AI 评分2626 The implications for the Fed:
The implications for the Fed: -All eyes will now be on Warsh's Q&A at the IMF meetings in Thailand (11:30 pm Eastern time US on Thursday). Markets aren't sure where to price October odds, which moved up to 50%. -The Fed minutes and some high-profile Fed speak had indicated the
X·宏观AI 评分1717 The AI boom is showing up in different corners of the U.S. economy, but the U.S. current account…
The AI boom is showing up in different corners of the U.S. economy, but the U.S. current account deficit has been largely unchanged. In today's post, the author explores why the AI boom hasn’t substantially affected the trade balance. https://t.co/gPDOlemIbs
X·宏观AI 评分1515 No hike in October
No hike in October 引用 @AnnaEconomist：This is the diffusion of CPI inflation, measured similarly to Kevin Warsh's preferred PCE inflation diffusion metric. It's down. our full reaction @TheTerminal https://t.co/WGPEXDyOy6 https://t.co/FcbBk7d2GU
X·宏观AI 评分1414 It's a shame Powell was such a political stooge and cut rates for TRUMP 125bp since he was elected.…
It's a shame Powell was such a political stooge and cut rates for TRUMP 125bp since he was elected. (Ducks)
X·宏观AI 评分2626 Wednesday’s unexpectedly firm inflation report raised the stakes for Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s…
Wednesday’s unexpectedly firm inflation report raised the stakes for Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s appearance at the IMF meetings in Bangkok, the last scheduled remarks by a Fed official before policymakers go quiet ahead of their Oct. 27-28 meeting https://t.co/Av5iYVsyTQ
X·宏观AI 评分99 The 12 Reserve Banks represent different geographic regions, or districts, and provide a wealth of…
The 12 Reserve Banks represent different geographic regions, or districts, and provide a wealth of information on conditions across the nation. Learn more about the Reserve Banks’ role as a key entity of the Federal Reserve System (2/2): https://t.co/ud2DXgodYk
X·宏观AI 评分2525 Read about economic conditions in Reserve Bank Districts in the #BeigeBook (1/2):
Read about economic conditions in Reserve Bank Districts in the #BeigeBook (1/2): https://t.co/e3QNq5khGx https://t.co/h5Ggesah9b
X·宏观AI 评分6060 El-Erian谈美国CPI超预期公布后的美债收益率与10月加息概率变化
美国CPI高于预期后，美债收益率一度上升，市场对美联储10月加息的概率也随之提高；两项变化在交易时段内均有所回落。原文提到总体通胀上涨0.6%，未注明比较口径。
X·宏观AI 评分3333 "Firms in several Districts cited persistent uncertainty around energy and tariffs and expect that…
"Firms in several Districts cited persistent uncertainty around energy and tariffs and expect that prices will increase further in the coming months, as existing contracts expire, and firms must renegotiate hedge contracts for their own inputs and/or delivery contracts to their 引用 @federalreserve：R
X·宏观AI 评分1515 今天的2年期美债走势，TLT收盘都是涨的，坏消息却走出射击之星，技术面怎么都告诉你利率见顶的信号。
今天的2年期美债走势，TLT收盘都是涨的，坏消息却走出射击之星，技术面怎么都告诉你利率见顶的信号。 至于美股，今天和美债利率是一起下跌，走出了衰退行情，千变万化😀 https://t.co/pDpjmd50bE
X·grokAI 评分2828 名义增长（通胀加上实际增长）决定了名义收益率的合理水平。这意味着实际增长在决定名义收益率方面也有作用。
名义增长（通胀加上实际增长）决定了名义收益率的合理水平。这意味着实际增长在决定名义收益率方面也有作用。 名义收益率不仅仅是对通胀预期的反应，正如我在这里解释的。 https://t.co/0bdPnwpo4m https://t.co/fkWweDw9Ja 【引用原文】@johnarnold：我越来越倾向于这样一种观点：提高联邦基金利率对降低通胀作用甚微，甚至可能适得其反。 - AI 投资不太可能因为利率略高而放缓 - 能源需求高度缺乏弹性，利率变化无法缓解当前的供给冲击 - 更高的利率会伤害住房、能源、汽车和其他资本密集型行业的供给侧解决方案 - 更高的借贷成本会抬高企业运营费用，其中
X·grokAI 评分4848 纽约联储主席 John Williams：今年再加息一次仍合适，目前不认为2027年有必要再次加息
纽约联储主席 John Williams 表示，他仍认为今年再加息一次是合适的。对于2027年，他目前不认为央行有必要再次加息。
X·grokAI 评分3535 Cook 的律师说她将因美联储公务出行，无法出席11月5日在白宫举行的听证会。他要求白宫推迟到美联储12月8-9日政策会议之后。
Cook 的律师说她将因美联储公务出行，无法出席11月5日在白宫举行的听证会。他要求白宫推迟到美联储12月8-9日政策会议之后。 https://t.co/6rBWVhWmTH https://t.co/Ezah0v5CtY 被引原文（@NickTimiraos）：白宫为什么现在要就美联储理事 Lisa Cook 举行听证会？特朗普在7月解释过原因。 在最高法院允许 Cook 在挑战其解雇企图期间保留席位后，特朗普在 CNBC 上说法院“把它发回了，不是基于案情。他们发回 https://t.co/eX27UjMfjH 原文： Cook's lawyer says she'll be