X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号。按时间排，不论是否入选精选。
Companies that are doing well just before an IPO don't: - Refuse to disclose their actual revenue - "Leak" overstated numbers to the press - Repeatedly push back the listing date - Raise huge "bridge" financing rounds - Claim existential risk to get gov monopoly protection
Andy is right. There absolutely ARE mathematicians excited about using AI for further exploration, including the guest we talked to today. But to my mind, that's a good reason for the labs to not just use their internal models to nuke the field with proofslop. 引用 @ahall_research：Some notes on what
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That matters because China's underlying need to export remains strong (weak internal demand), China's currency remains undervalued (even with the recent move tied to dollar strength) and China's current export wave is broad based -- sectoral measures won't stop the tide 7/7
Swinging by CNBC Overtime at 440pm ET today to no doubt piss off some AI manics with some troubling facts we learned this week. Check it out!
Full headline is 1 days consumption? I mean thanks I guess. 引用 @financialjuice：Trump: Putin Agreed to Release Diesel Into Global Oil Market - Truth Social https://t.co/PcQn6r7Nxk
美国贸易逆差中的“AI”部分正在增长，主要体现为自墨西哥进口增加；台湾及其他代工厂也已大规模转向墨西哥进行最终组装。Foxconn位于墨西哥哈利斯科州埃尔萨尔托、组装英伟达 NVL72 服务器机架的工厂，目前供应的商品接近美国商品进口总额的 1%。
Every week I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely Subscribe and read: https://t.co/fR212p97cV
Rational Dissent Episode 012. What the 'K' is Going on? Available on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, and more. Markets and portfolios are keeping top earners spending, while many paycheck-to-paycheck households fall behind as prices have risen faster than wages https://t.co/uYWxlEglOv
New at THE OVERSHOOT: Found: America’s Missing Interest Income https://t.co/buuwWs0nTe For years I have argued that the official numbers on net interest payments by U.S. businesses were grossly understated. The latest revisions have vindicated my view. https://t.co/mdlxkKYNbF
thinking of writing a piece simply titled “Tanker Rates Ruined Crude Prices”
Internet connectivity enables education & prosperity 引用 @AsFoundX：🚨 ELON MUSK ON INTERNET AND POVERTY Elon said the single biggest thing you can do to lift people out of poverty is give them an internet connection. Once people have internet, they can learn almost anything for free and sell their
Like usual growth solves most problems so there’s a chance this looks like a blip if the labs go back to rapid ARR growth This was always the issue when every bet was additional leverage on the same data points (lab growth). That’s why fear cascades when the foundational bet 引用 @joinyellowbrick：I
Per Grok, “Trucked compressed natural gas is reported to cost roughly four times pipeline deliveries once labor, equipment, and truck fuel are included, and scaling it even to 100 MW of the 2.45 GW Project Jupiter site would require a large trailer roughly every 40 minutes.”
关于大饼及加密的这一波调整原因是什么以及之后怎么看？个人应该是X比较早预警调整要来的，最早是9月28号聊到（引用的推文）：准备金已经回落，意味着流动性开始收紧9月中下特别是10月下旬需要谨慎、10月下旬可能是年内流动性的最低点，已经给这次一调整预警了。 https://t.co/jJpEaJwrYp 引用 @qinbafrank：对于大饼和加密，需要关注一些流动性的变化。银行准备金上上周3.03万亿，上周已经回落到2.96万亿。之前8月20号的推文有聊到：从流动性的角度看、近期币市应该还可以，直到9月中。9月中下特别是10月下旬需要谨慎、10月下旬可能是年内流动性的最低点。然后年底又可以更乐
And the sums involved are so staggeringly big that they are bound to leave traces (Korea is now similar to China in that respect) 9/9 https://t.co/k0ix5xriL0
Using Grok @Bot is like hiring a super smart, hard-working person for peanuts 引用 @B_doong2daddy：First month I paid $200 Cursor Ultra just to try Grok Bot. I said to myself.. it's okay even I don't find it worth it, I will still learn something. I learned so much since I started Grok Bot + Cursor. I
Tensor10 (see what I did there having added AMD) chart/table https://t.co/JidNwVlRhK
One Big Bet US stocks have held up in the face of surging bond yields, corporate spreads, and higher oil prices. The AI mania is the only thing left supporting the market. https://t.co/IYnRYJhBLq https://t.co/QXkeGEyneI
NEW ODD LOTS What people get wrong about Europe's economic decline @TheStalwart & I speak with @NewLeftEViews about the nuances of Europe's competitiveness problems: https://t.co/pVW13W1M69
With everyone talking about Europe’s various crises these days, listen to @NewLeftEViews explain what is and isn’t going wrong right now. 引用 @tracyalloway：NEW ODD LOTS What people get wrong about Europe's economic decline @TheStalwart & I speak with @NewLeftEViews about the nuances of Europe's co
It seems like the history of AI is basically a series of one technique augmenting an older technique, and then just dropping the older technique altogether. So does that eventually mean we can just have RL and no need for an original pre-training run? 引用 @not_ellington：It really does seem pre-train
Starlink will be of great help to areas of India that have bad or no Internet and even no mobile coverage. No country has perfect coverage, including America, but Starlink can fill in the coverage gaps for those who most need it. 引用 @nitinmeshram_：In my village, there has been no mobile network c
Starlink provides Internet connectivity to the least-served, enabling self-education and prosperity by giving people access to sell their products worldwide! 引用 @XFreeze：Many people still misunderstand what Starlink is actually for Starlink isn’t a replacement.....It’s a lifeline “Starlink will g
There is little consensus on the effect of AI adoption on employment. In today's post, the authors study this topic for U.S. small businesses using data from the 2025 Small Business Credit Survey to examine the 12-month forward employment & revenue expectations of AI users.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells Fox's @IngrahamAngle that he hopes the Fed will keep an "open mind" on rate hikes and consider the example of the 1990s and Greenspan. What's interesting about this oft-cited analogy is that there's the 1996-97 Greenspan who resisted hiking https://t.co/xSQ2dV
昨天视频下面留言：“SP500的EPS最大的贡献者就是NVDA和MU，占了1/3，所以SP500的估值并不能简单说是便宜” 下面是标普等权，15.9倍，也低于今年3月份，比上年的3月，15倍，要高。高了大概6%。 估值在低位的结论不变，我就是一个在数据上非常执着的杠精 https://t.co/jIByYRLd9o
If something has been proven, but nobody knows what the proof is (in language that humans can understand), maybe that becomes the job of mathematicians. Though I suppose the bitter lesson is that eventually, AI also gets better than humans at translating the outputs of AI. 引用 @ValerioCapraro：BREAKI
Also a big @citrini piece out today on RWAs/Tokenization/Perps https://t.co/rjGuy6QTdS
HSBC has a new note out giving its clients a primer on perps (perpetual futures) https://t.co/wjlvbiJmFF
FYI, on the growing risks of repeated US interventions to sway market pricing: https://t.co/36nBr4ORK1 @FT #economy #markets https://t.co/OcYTddGvF9
I've been making the case for bonds. If this cover cannot convince you that it's time for bonds, I cannot help you anymore!! @donnelly_brent https://t.co/v1tYd6DX9G 引用 @biancoresearch：For years, yields were below where the economy said they should be. That is no longer the case. https://t.co/m60E
My approach too solving this problem is to assemble big lists of items, and then have a model identify the essence of each item outputted in a series of haikus (to constrain the output and force creativity) which are then fed to an embedding model.
Regular reminder that this kind of thinking has always been wrong. https://t.co/HmwjhAmYQH 引用 @Forbes：Jeff Bezos Claims AI Could Allow For 3-Day Workweeks And One-Income Families https://t.co/cpgZl69ut8 https://t.co/00QCFHBOq5
Many nasty replies to my piece yesterday on flatlining model revenue b/c they were highly confident OpenAI ARR surged to 70bln based based on an unsourced leak. Lots mocking the use of @tickerplus as an estimate. Turns it was... 50bln. smh https://t.co/MQWQAAMi79 https://t.co/X47HrfOpom 引用 @BobEU
It was great chatting with @NewLeftEViews about what all the discussions about "lack of European competitiveness" get wrong, and why the Draghi report is a dead end. https://t.co/BAYotVKwiS
过去2个月，AGENT都开始铺开了，微软，谷歌，ASTRA，MUSE，别被OAI的消息吓跑了，看到了利率下跌，IWM反弹，黄金反弹，但和OAI应该相关性没有那么强。根据自己的认知平衡一下仓位。价值股低迷一些，SET UP好
Would encourage everyone to listen to the whole conversation with Michelle Brouhard, Head of Policy and Geopolitical Risk at Kpler, on the Oil Ground Up podcast here: https://t.co/6Vpk6hKs0U 引用 @HormuzReport：BREAKING: A senior Kpler analyst suspects some Gulf producers are quietly paying Iran huge
At current growth rates, it'll take until 2045 for OpenAI+Anthropic *together* to reach 1tln in ARR.
Write a few 1000 words on adding bonds to a long portfolio. Within say I'm tactically short bonds through 9/30. Cover well. Go max long for alpha a bit above current level using a complicated options strategy recognizing the vol implications of the CTD flip. And people think