克利夫兰联储主席 Beth Hammack 表示,投资者更多是根据他们认为美联储会做什么、而不是应该做什么来交易,这一观点与 Kevin Warsh 为追求更纯粹的市场信号而少谈前景的主张格格不入。 “曾在市场一侧 https://t.co/Bnf0fqYoGN 原文: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said investors trade more on what they think the Fed will do than one what it should do, a view that sits uneasily with Kevin
And of course read my blog on this too ... One can debate whether China is so far from internal balance that its trading partners should turn a blind eye to its evident undervaluation and growing external surplus. But one cannot debate whether the exchange rate matters!
CHART OF THE DAY: Economic pain alone may force Tehran -- or may not -- into softening its red lines. I don't know. What we know is the pain is very real. According to new IMF estimates, Iran will suffer in 2026 the biggest GDP contraction in nearly 40 years, down 7.6% y-on-y. https://t.co/V193k2Mv8
Kicking off Day 3 at #NABE2026 with @NelaRichardson discussing the shifting AI and talent paradigm focusing on how AI is shaping the demand for « tasks » — great collaboration between @ADP and @DigEconLab https://t.co/wv2MPndpST
Hiring slowed marginally for the first time in eight weeks with private payrolls adding an average of 24,750 jobs for four-weeks ending Sep. 26 per @adpresearch https://t.co/XkVIvgPTFI
Fascinating geopolitical discussion with @anna_rosenberg & @ConstanceHunter moderated by Tani Fukui. « Welcome to a « low-trust » anarchic multipolar world » #NABE2026 https://t.co/qmCGRgG5bh
India mulls even more coal-fired power generation (The country is the world's 2nd largest coal consumer, only behind China, accounting for ~15% of global demand) https://t.co/6ZJkqapFGM
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said investors trade more on what they think the Fed will do than on what it should do, a view that sits uneasily with Kevin Warsh's push to say less about the outlook in pursuit of a purer market signal. "Having been on the market side of https://t.co/1BqePizq
Spiky is one way to say it. PBoC also trying to deny the obvious -- namely that a weaker inflation adjusted (real) CNY predictably raises its exports and increases its current account surplus https://t.co/2h983VfQsg 引用 @ftchina:China gets spiky on currencies https://t.co/gH8QqBbNbQ
CFTC staff analyzing oil trades for insider trading around the U.S.-Iran war were told to retract their referral to the agency's enforcement division | h/t @CGorrivan https://t.co/YdN6lVAXC7
“…The next war with Iran may be shorter than the last one. But it could also be far more intense, destructive, and difficult to contain from the very first day…” 引用 @citrinowicz:The Next War with Iran Could Escalate Almost Immediately, and Far Beyond the Previous Conflict One thing has become inc
Good morning. Here's the usual summary table from the just-released World Economic Outlook from the IMF. More to follow. #economy #markets @IMFNews https://t.co/lptAHOJon5
Governor Waller participates in a discussion at the @BBGNewEconomy Forum 2026 Watch live: https://t.co/LRdfwsAu4K Learn more about Governor Waller: https://t.co/x9pLY09PF9
I agree with Mr. Batson; China needs more borrowing (used more efficiently) to support consumption and strengthen nominal GDP growth. I think many folks have the wrong intuition around an economy that saves 40% of GDP. It will either run massive external surpluses, or be in a 引用 @andrewbatson:@ni
Zelenskyy to Trump on Russian diesel supplies: "We do have influence over whether these ships can sail or not, whether these refineries can operate or not." 引用 @ZelenskyyUa:I don’t believe the volume of diesel Russia will export will affect the price. Moreover, we see that they can export from 300,
No Relief Coming At The Pump Despite all the rhetoric in recent days intended to create more product supply, it's all marginal in the face of an oil market that if anything looks like it's getting tighter. https://t.co/KLT3pxeovj
Ukraine has “influence over whether these ships can sail or not, whether these refineries can operate or not. … Electricity is what matters to us. That’s clear. If we can be guaranteed protection for our power system, then we will not strike Russia’s diesel infrastructure in 引用 @ZelenskyyUa:I don
The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded on Monday to Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford “for microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stabilization.” https://t.co/tDkez5xSH6
If the French-German spread ends October at these levels, it'll represent a higher monthly high than the worst of the Euro crisis. Still below the daily peak in 2011. https://t.co/eWGtM7Rutb
Summer 2007 when the math was pretty clear that the credit losses were going to be in the trillions. https://t.co/KzNYHtBczw https://t.co/X1BVMQ1hdU https://t.co/QqGudCeERV 引用 @riqsz5:For those who were adults during the 2008 financial crisis, what was your holy crap, the economy is actually crash
Hammack adds that Fed should act and markets react — encouraging to see rise in yields contributing to tighter policy stance, but stresses this is a function of Fed actions and signaling.
Hammack speaks about accountability and information in Fed providing forecasts — « but I’m not invested in SEP being right » She offers connecting the dots with economic forecasts to have a better understanding of individual reaction functions https://t.co/K61fi3nqKH
At #NABE2026, @ClevelandFed Pres Hammack says « policymakers need to explain the information & thought process behind our interest rate decisions. Explaining my reaction function is not a prediction for policy. It’s describing how I expect policy to adjust as conditions change » https://t.co/sqwUmpP
It'll be interesting to see who does/doesn't show up at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh later this month. https://t.co/SlujHF3KIY https://t.co/8c8MdKYEC9
Correlation vs causation vs intent - as we argue in the #GenevaReport, it is mostly about the inflation differential driven by China’s housing bust vs the West inflation surge, at the time of rapid tech progress. A Reverse Dutch Disease that benefits China @cepr_org https://t.co/XCDNy6qrki 引用 @Brad