X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号。按时间排，不论是否入选精选。
In today's post, the authors explore how investment responsiveness to monetary policy changes across firms and over time. Their findings underscore the importance of considering the entire distribution of investment responses rather than focusing on the average effect.
美联储公布了9月15日至16日举行的FOMC会议纪要。
美联储会议纪要显示，多数与会者认为，到年底再次上调联邦基金利率目标区间可能是适当的。原文未提供具体加息幅度或确定的行动安排。 https://t.co/QEWpwekHD5
8月消费者信贷年化增长1.9%，其中循环信贷下降4.2%，非循环信贷增长4.1%。
I really think everyone over-complicates this. There’s a lot of spending right now, a decent chunk of which is related to AI. (all) Spending puts upward pressure on prices. To counteract upward price pressure, the Fed keeps rates high. Treasuries reflect Fed policy. 引用 @DKThomp：question for
And here it was explained, three and a half years earlier, why inflation remains unfixed, fiscal dominance is more in the news, and ultimately, nothing stops this train. 引用 @LynAldenContact：Most of the hawks don't take into account the fiscal-driven inflation situation or sovereign bond liquidity.
Further to yesterday's chart of the US yield curve, this one from The Wall Street Journal details the one-month round trip in market expectations for an October Fed rate hike. Is a "hall of mirrors" feedback loop at play here, or is this simply correlation? #economy #markets https://t.co/CyGMp09vjn
Kevin Warsh wants investors to watch the economy, not the Fed. But two of his deputies stepped in last week and the probability of an October rate hike fell to around 25% from 70% ahead of any major new data. Why weaning the markets off Fed signals is harder than it sounds https://t.co/nnaySWiPHC
Speech by Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman on modernizing regulation and supervision @stlouisfed: https://t.co/TdHpdx4GjV Watch live: https://t.co/3uONmVD82z Learn more about Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman: https://t.co/tWe5lT3FDv
The 2025-26 U.S. tariffs have renewed the question of how much of a tariff reaches consumers, and how quickly. In today's post, the authors trace tariffs through import, domestic producer, and retail prices for U.S. consumer goods. https://t.co/qKgJSPqQKq
纽约联储研究称，截至2026年2月，关税对商品价格通胀贡献2.9个百分点；若没有关税，商品价格会略有下降。研究估算，关税税率每提高1个百分点，约四分之一会在一年内体现于消费者价格。
Brad Setser认为，关税向消费价格的传导幅度低于其预期。文中称，每提高1个百分点关税税率，约四分之一会在一年内反映到消费价格；引用纽约联储数据称，截至2026年2月，关税使商品价格通胀增加2.9个百分点，若无关税，商品价格将略有下降。
IS THE BOND MARKET PRICING IN A NEW GLOBAL HEGEMON? In the newsletter (inspired by our conversation with @CarolinPflueger) I wrote about the huge spread between US and Chinese sovereign borrowing costs, and what it might imply about a shifting balance of geopolitical power. https://t.co/koH2ow8LCn
Again if you start from the premise that having the most advanced AI is a matter of national security — clearly a view that’s held by many in DC and SF — then the right policy to tame inflation is not to raise rates, but to raise taxes on everything except datacenters. 引用 @colbyLsmith：NEW w/ @benca
1/3 Here's the chart back to 1793, courtesy of Ed McQuarrie at Santa Clara. The past 10 years have been the worst since 1803. Read that carefully. Bonds WERE the worst investment in American history. It says nothing about what they do next. https://t.co/9kif9Ryayo 引用 @dampedspring：This chart is
当被问到：你后悔说过“我现在就是庄家”吗？ 贝森特说：“不后悔，因为你看，庄家也不是每一把都赢，庄家玩的是概率长期下来你会赢。我无法控制债券市场。我能做的是让人们慢下来思考，而非控制市场。” 对美债收益率上升，贝森特认为与全球趋势一致，并非美国特有现象：“如果出现 https://t.co/XP3h9Nkluv 引用 @qinbafrank：“我现在是庄家，所以当我们干预日元的时候，我对日本人、日本央行、日本决策层要做什么了如指掌，你们要想跟我对赌就尽管来。这是贝森特昨晚在访谈中直接说的，当一位曾经参与成功狙击过英镑和泰铢、在外汇市场有着丰富经验的基金经理成为了美国财政部长，他确实有着极强
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells Axios's @mikeallen he thinks Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is "doing well." "If I look at my call sheet every day, I probably have a hundred calls to make. I think if you're Fed chair, you probably have three. So part of my job is to make sure https://t.co/JK3V5uxD
Last week was mainly about bond market volatility, with evidence of spillover, and continued equity market resilience due to data and Fedspeak. This week, we get the Fed minutes and lots of interesting data. For more details, please see one of the links below for my weekly note
Bessent: "I can't control the bond market. What I can do is try to get people to slow down and think." "What I meant by 'I am the house' is that I have superior information." https://t.co/gWNMqc6992
S&P 500 Technology stocks have been main beneficiaries of this year’s AI trade, up 30% YTD; Communication Services, buoyed by Meta, has more recently joined rally (S&P 500’s best performers in September); yet, credit markets are signalling greater caution; option-adjusted spreads https://t.co/NjNtKd
The unemployment rate tells a similar picture of relative stability. It was 4.19% in June, 4.09% in July, 4.14% in August, and 4.18% in September. Since June 2024, the unemployment rate has not fallen below 4.0% or risen higher than 4.5%. https://t.co/x6ByfSnZ9P
美国三个月平均招聘人数此前公布的8月均值为7.1万人，现修订为5.1万人，9月三个月平均招聘人数也为5.1万人。9月私营部门就业增加5.4万人，高于下修后的8月4.8万人；引用内容称，过去三个月就业增长较此前报告略弱，失业率升至4.2%。
美国就业数据疲软后，交易员下调对美联储加息的预期，推动2年期美债收益率继续回落。下一个重要数据催化剂是10月14日公布的CPI通胀数据。
On October 1, 2026, Governor Waller gave remarks on Federal Reserve economic data at the @stlouisfed: https://t.co/YsKwAIFqW1 https://t.co/iJefKcW9uA
Great to join @NYSE with @KristenScholer to discuss the latest #jobsreport, #diesel prices, economic trends and what this all means for the #Fed's next rate decision via @EYnews @EY_Parthenon https://t.co/cJQZJ88htZ 引用 @NYSE：Today on NYSE Live: @parisingh, @flowenghq @keithirizarry, @MLBNetwork+@E
This ho-hum labor market report doesn't really change the story for the Fed, whose senior officials had gone out of their way this week to signal that an October rate hike probably wasn't their base-case. The biggest development was what it didn't show: few signs from wages or https://t.co/6GY9Ud2Q
过去3天，市场对美联储10月下一次FOMC会议加息的定价概率从70%降至23%。原文提到12月，但内容未完。
Blanche tells Bloomberg News he isn't reopening a criminal investigation into former Fed Chair Jerome Powell for cost overruns on its buildings But he said that if the Fed's own internal audit of the project finds evidence of wrongdoing, the DOJ could investigate
Notes on the Data have been added for the following as-of-date: July 1, 2026, and revised for the following as-of-dates: April 2, 2025; July 2, 2025; October 1, 2025; December 31, 2025; and April 1, 2026. Data on this H.8 release have been benchmarked through the June 2026 Call
Now available: Weekly data on the H.8 release, Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States (1/2) #FedData https://t.co/WeJhdaARrt
Approval of application by Fleur Capital Corporation: https://t.co/leWVVgepsb
Trump says he’s not satisfied with media coverage that relied on the statements of his own attorney general that suggested the DOJ is done investigating the Fed building renovations. He restates his unhappiness with former Fed chair Powell. https://t.co/LH8IxiUnoW 引用 @NickTimiraos：Blanche tells Blo
7/7 Since the Fed didn't listen and kept cutting rates, yields🚀. If the Fed continues to defy the market by refraining from hiking later this month, could we see more🚀? - "Bond traders will stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking." Start panicking Fed/Williams!
6/7 The 2024 to 2026 CUTTING cycle (orange) saw HIGHER bond yields (blue). This is the first time in 50+ years CUTS saw HIGHER yields. I've argued this was the market sending the Fed a message that they were too easy. Short rates (funds/repo/bills) needed to be higher. https://t.co/jlKJCFXDWH
1/7 tl:dr - This week, Fedspeak said "no urgency" to hike in October. Payrolls helped this narrative. The bond market is signaling unhappiness with this potential outcome. "Bond Traders can stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking." 🧵
8/8 Why push back on debt levels as a driver of interest rates? Because way too many think debt is the MAIN driver of higher yields, interest costs are the burden, and the solution is financial repression such as yield curve control. This would be disastrous. If yields are 引用 @biancoresearch：1