美债收益率与未来回报高度相关：收益率越高，后续回报越好
美债收益率越高，未来回报往往越好；自1914年以来，两者关系的R²为0.85。10年前收益率为2%，如今为5.5%；按历史数据，未来十年的年回报约为5%，而非-2%。
#债券/利率
X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号。按时间排，不论是否入选精选。
X·宏观AI 评分4242 X·宏观AI 评分2626 2/3 You buy a bond for its yield (blue). By 2020, they were the lowest in US history. This killed…
2/3 You buy a bond for its yield (blue). By 2020, they were the lowest in US history. This killed returns (orange) Since then, yields have risen (price losses). This was the unwinding of QE and zero rates. That is done. Now yields are back and diverging from returns. https://t.co/bx6K1nkPSg
X·宏观AI 评分1818 1/3 Here's the chart back to 1793, courtesy of Ed McQuarrie at Santa Clara.
1/3 Here's the chart back to 1793, courtesy of Ed McQuarrie at Santa Clara. The past 10 years have been the worst since 1803. Read that carefully. Bonds WERE the worst investment in American history. It says nothing about what they do next. https://t.co/9kif9Ryayo 引用 @dampedspring：This chart is
X·宏观AI 评分1818 The Bond Pivot: Jim Bianco On Why It’s Time To Start Buying Bonds
The Bond Pivot: Jim Bianco On Why It’s Time To Start Buying Bonds https://t.co/SyHexlpDlA
X·宏观AI 评分1616 Bessent: "I can't control the bond market. What I can do is try to get people to slow down and…
Bessent: "I can't control the bond market. What I can do is try to get people to slow down and think." "What I meant by 'I am the house' is that I have superior information." https://t.co/gWNMqc6992
X·财经博主AI 评分66 Markets Weekly October 3, 2026
Markets Weekly October 3, 2026 Bonds behave badly Le spread Anthropic IPO https://t.co/z4A7UCjuDI
X·财经博主AI 评分3434 Color-coded real yields.
Color-coded real yields. Even with the recent spike, 10-year TIPS (2.91%) are only back to the pre-QE average (2.74%). Back then, debt held by the public was ~35% of GDP. Now it's ~100%. If debt were the driver, real yields would be far higher than pre-2008. https://t.co/3G49zfzkwk
X·宏观AI 评分4747 美国就业数据疲软后，美债市场如何反应
美国就业数据疲软后，交易员下调对美联储加息的预期，推动2年期美债收益率继续回落。下一个重要数据催化剂是10月14日公布的CPI通胀数据。
X·宏观AI 评分1010 Great to join with to discuss the latest #jobsreport, #diesel prices, economic trends and what this…
Great to join @NYSE with @KristenScholer to discuss the latest #jobsreport, #diesel prices, economic trends and what this all means for the #Fed's next rate decision via @EYnews @EY_Parthenon https://t.co/cJQZJ88htZ 引用 @NYSE：Today on NYSE Live: @parisingh, @flowenghq @keithirizarry, @MLBNetwork+@E
X·宏观AI 评分1414 Part of the institutional backdrop that helps explain limited foreign demand for Treasuries even as…
Part of the institutional backdrop that helps explain limited foreign demand for Treasuries even as the US borrowing need hovers around 6 pp of GDP. Treasuries aren't just competing with bunds and JGBs; governments are evaluating the risk/ reward of Treasuries relative to
X·宏观AI 评分1111 In a shocking turn of events, this time I completely agree with David and tweeted the math broadly.
In a shocking turn of events, this time I completely agree with David and tweeted the math broadly. 引用 @DavidZervosDC：In the @ftopinion article below, @martinwolf_ claims that the average maturity of US Treasury issuance decreased from 6.1 years in 2024 to 2.5 years in 2026. He should check his mat
X·宏观AI 评分1818 Our latest #OnInvesting podcast episode has dropped on which and I chat about bond yields, the…
Our latest #OnInvesting podcast episode has dropped on which @CollinMartinCS and I chat about bond yields, the yield curve, and weak stock market breadth; and I sit down with the always-insightful Eric Liu from @vandaresearch, who discusses Vanda’s latest upgrade to their view
X·宏观AI 评分1818 I amplified the IIF's number on the change in the maturity structure of issuance that Wolf used…
I amplified the IIF's number on the change in the maturity structure of issuance that Wolf used, and it doesn't seem to check out. That said, I do think net bill issuance is poised to jump again -- the 4qs to q2 2026 are a temporary low https://t.co/ZFXi6F35Hj 引用 @DavidZervosDC：In the @ftopinion a
X·宏观AI 评分2727 France has taken center stage these days among the G7's three most bond-sensitive economies, with…
France has taken center stage these days among the G7's three most bond-sensitive economies, with the French-German 10-year spread moving more than 50 bps in the last month. (The other two economies are Japan and the UK.) #economy #markets #france #eurozone #europe #bonds #yields https://t.co/M1YpIE
X·宏观AI 评分4949 市场对美联储近期政策行动的定价本周大幅调整
过去3天，市场对美联储10月下一次FOMC会议加息的定价概率从70%降至23%。原文提到12月，但内容未完。
X·宏观AI 评分2828 HY Spreads Merton Model - Doomers take a breath please. 1) Yes HY spreads are spiking over the last…
HY Spreads Merton Model - Doomers take a breath please. 1) Yes HY spreads are spiking over the last 4 months. 2) you have to squint to think this is high spreads or stress 3) a merton model using equity vols and levels and corporate leverage tracks spreads pretty well. 4) https://t.co/xiz4uaiOLr
X·财经博主AI 评分1515 7/7 Since the Fed didn't listen and kept cutting rates, yields🚀.
7/7 Since the Fed didn't listen and kept cutting rates, yields🚀. If the Fed continues to defy the market by refraining from hiking later this month, could we see more🚀? - "Bond traders will stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking." Start panicking Fed/Williams!
X·财经博主AI 评分2929 6/7 The 2024 to 2026 CUTTING cycle (orange) saw HIGHER bond yields (blue).
6/7 The 2024 to 2026 CUTTING cycle (orange) saw HIGHER bond yields (blue). This is the first time in 50+ years CUTS saw HIGHER yields. I've argued this was the market sending the Fed a message that they were too easy. Short rates (funds/repo/bills) needed to be higher. https://t.co/jlKJCFXDWH
X·财经博主AI 评分1616 蠢货天天再谈加息影响股市。
蠢货天天再谈加息影响股市。 我的暴论：你加到10%，股市还是创新高。 美国经济的动力不再是消费而是AI基建。现在利润搞到比挖金子还高，你加息怎么压制它？
X·财经博主AI 评分1717 我五月底关闭订阅，预言科技股会大跌，我的预言准不准，当时通知订阅学员买入债券、BIL避险，准不准？我们的学员幸不幸福？
我五月底关闭订阅，预言科技股会大跌，我的预言准不准，当时通知订阅学员买入债券、BIL避险，准不准？我们的学员幸不幸福？ 引用 @cnfinancewatch：我看空六月以来一直 看空科技，预言龙头跌50%，杂毛跌两个50%， 只有在八月看多黄金（已经清仓）， 现在不悲观：老登新登同步砸盘，最后一跌就在眼前。刚刚588000破新低了。恐慌盘出来，最后一砸，挖坑就会完毕。目前大资金还有8000亿需要出掉。 可能机会就在这两天，大家订阅吧：
X·财经博主AI 评分2121 8/8 Why push back on debt levels as a driver of interest rates?
8/8 Why push back on debt levels as a driver of interest rates? Because way too many think debt is the MAIN driver of higher yields, interest costs are the burden, and the solution is financial repression such as yield curve control. This would be disastrous. If yields are 引用 @biancoresearch：1
X·财经博主AI 评分2020 1/8 Is Too Much Debt the Reason Bond Yields are Heading Higher?
1/8 Is Too Much Debt the Reason Bond Yields are Heading Higher? -- My argument for why this case is overstated. (It's a problem, but a secondary one.) 🧵 https://t.co/zBzpq4Mada