Bond rally off lows feels like when stocks were in max fear and ripped off the hot CPI print in Oct…
Bond rally off lows feels like when stocks were in max fear and ripped off the hot CPI print in Oct 2022
#解读/复盘
X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号。按时间排，不论是否入选精选。
X·宏观AI 评分1616 X·grokAI 评分1919 “10月流动性整体收紧，下旬是流动性低点。大饼在10月后半月或者下旬会迎来好的上车点” 9月的这个判断的含金量是不是还可以？
“10月流动性整体收紧，下旬是流动性低点。大饼在10月后半月或者下旬会迎来好的上车点” 9月的这个判断的含金量是不是还可以？ https://t.co/lH2Fa5zaIO https://t.co/jUgIBDfTin 引用 @qinbafrank：关于大饼及加密继续保持上周五推文的框架：当然也认为是大周期向上过程中的正常调整但调整时间还不够，10月下半个月或者下旬会迎好的上车点。当时在评论里还跟人讨论过https://t.co/cdBBpu1v0J短期内会有反弹但只是小反弹并不是反转。8月这一波稳定币的主力是USDC，其发发行量最近几天还在回落，已经快回落到8月底下旬的水平了。
X·grokAI 评分5353 作者分析BLS特殊聚合指数中的9月美国CPI分项
作者根据BLS Table 3称，剔除食品、住房和能源后，9月CPI同比约+2.0%、环比约0.3–0.4%；进一步剔除二手车后，同比约+2.3%、环比约0.3–0.4%。文中将这些读数与整体核心CPI同比2.6%作比较，并指出美联储更关注PCE，9月PCE数据要到月底公布；作者还提及明日的PPI数据。
X·grokAI 评分4040 AirTrunk据报道将约15亿美元的新加坡REIT IPO推迟至2027年，Firmus此前撤回上市
AirTrunk据报道将约15亿美元的新加坡REIT IPO推迟至2027年，几天前Firmus撤回了上市。Firmus寻求的估值接近其8月估值的3倍；AirTrunk推迟也反映出利率较高。两起事件表明，投资者希望承担风险时获得更有吸引力的定价。
X·宏观AI 评分1414 讲到重点了，但有一些要分清楚，比如一样东西涨价，消费不足，销量可以下降，但价格依然上涨。所以工资增加有限和初期看到通胀并不矛盾。
讲到重点了，但有一些要分清楚，比如一样东西涨价，消费不足，销量可以下降，但价格依然上涨。所以工资增加有限和初期看到通胀并不矛盾。 引用 @EricDengCa：@TJ_Research 美国人的钱到底哪里来的 工资增加都这么有限了 怎么还一直通胀？
X·宏观AI 评分1717 The AI boom is showing up in different corners of the U.S. economy, but the U.S. current account…
The AI boom is showing up in different corners of the U.S. economy, but the U.S. current account deficit has been largely unchanged. In today's post, the author explores why the AI boom hasn’t substantially affected the trade balance. https://t.co/gPDOlemIbs
X·宏观AI 评分1010 A more aligned model would’ve hijacked the compiler so that future researchers could write better…
A more aligned model would’ve hijacked the compiler so that future researchers could write better papers whose content would be helpful in designing safer AI. 引用 @ArthurCDent：Apparently this is the reasoning trace from Gemini Argon as it considered - but decided not to - insert a backdoor into a co
X·宏观AI 评分1414 It's a shame Powell was such a political stooge and cut rates for TRUMP 125bp since he was elected.…
It's a shame Powell was such a political stooge and cut rates for TRUMP 125bp since he was elected. (Ducks)
X·宏观AI 评分1616 第一个问题，不知道 第二个问题，关于跌破趋势线的问题，每个人得有自己的判断标准。我说是噪音，并不代表我认为今天明天就能止跌。你的持仓如果从技术面出发，那跌破你认为的趋势线就应该止损。买入时就应该直到卖…
第一个问题，不知道 第二个问题，关于跌破趋势线的问题，每个人得有自己的判断标准。我说是噪音，并不代表我认为今天明天就能止跌。你的持仓如果从技术面出发，那跌破你认为的趋势线就应该止损。买入时就应该直到卖出的标准是什么！ 引用 @wupeiyu98432551：@TJ_Research 🍑总你好，请问今天市场的暴跌会在ant的会议后修复吗？手里拿着迈威尔、core、be都是通杀，且有些别的都跌破趋势线了，但这些是不是都是噪音。着重看1，十年期国债利率不能一直高于5.3 2，Capex没有下降，ai需求仍强 3，两家应用巨头的上市前后也要注意，因为不可避免的会吸其它标的血
X·宏观AI 评分1515 But seriously. This is why you need to be anthropomorphizing. Not because they’re sentient beings…
But seriously. This is why you need to be anthropomorphizing. Not because they’re sentient beings, but because anything a human might do or say — like “maybe I should hijack the compiler and be a legend” — the models will also do or say. 引用 @ArthurCDent：Apparently this is the reasoning trace from G
X·宏观AI 评分1212 Is there something other than this tweet tanking the AI stocks today?
Is there something other than this tweet tanking the AI stocks today? 引用 @elonmusk：@chamath Yikes
X·宏观AI 评分1717 做技术最常说的话是为何要逆势做，23年到现在的美股，中间所有的指数空头一直在逆势做，短期看着很正确，而4年却一直没把趋势做对
做技术最常说的话是为何要逆势做，23年到现在的美股，中间所有的指数空头一直在逆势做，短期看着很正确，而4年却一直没把趋势做对
X·宏观AI 评分1717 时间久了我们会发现美股就是涨涨跌跌，长期向上，然而中间的过程，每年都有人跑出来唱空，跌10%会有人出来唱跌30%，年内指数破几次新高就有几次有人出来猜顶，猜错了反正等下次新高还能继续猜。
时间久了我们会发现美股就是涨涨跌跌，长期向上，然而中间的过程，每年都有人跑出来唱空，跌10%会有人出来唱跌30%，年内指数破几次新高就有几次有人出来猜顶，猜错了反正等下次新高还能继续猜。
X·宏观AI 评分00 BOOM. It's guest writing today's Odd Lots newsletter.
BOOM. It's @NewLeftEViews guest writing today's Odd Lots newsletter. Read the full piece here: https://t.co/WMfK3JvGwI https://t.co/XzJIwUhaD7
X·宏观AI 评分1515 今天的2年期美债走势，TLT收盘都是涨的，坏消息却走出射击之星，技术面怎么都告诉你利率见顶的信号。
今天的2年期美债走势，TLT收盘都是涨的，坏消息却走出射击之星，技术面怎么都告诉你利率见顶的信号。 至于美股，今天和美债利率是一起下跌，走出了衰退行情，千变万化😀 https://t.co/pDpjmd50bE
X·宏观AI 评分33 Since a few people asked. I did it through the chat function on Openrouter, so I could use the API…
Since a few people asked. I did it through the chat function on Openrouter, so I could use the API without it having any context clues about who uploaded it https://t.co/ug8UshLr2Q
X·科技公司AI 评分11 Made with
Made with @Grok @Imagine 引用 @keepgoingAnnie：For those who didn't want the headache here is the same video, but removing the added effects so the light flashing isn't happening anymore or the harsh coloration. I hope this version is more enjoyable for those who share the same problem. Thanks for let
X·科技公司AI 评分1919 Make music videos easily with Grok
Make music videos easily with Grok @Bot 引用 @anabology：I made a Grok Bot that can use Suno, Midjourney, and Opus to make music videos "Claudia" (the Grok Bot) made this teaser autonomously with @imagine https://t.co/VcQYivuVYE https://t.co/XXZEIhYTt3
X·grokAI 评分5555 从四家美国银行三季度财报看美国经济与AI融资
作者结合摩根大通、高盛、花旗和富国三季度财报，从居民消费、企业信贷和AI融资三个角度梳理美国经济状况。摩根大通信用卡消费额增长10%，净核销率为1.27%；摩根大通、花旗和富国平均贷款分别同比增长10%、12%和11%。高盛称客户算力需求超过供给，为融资安排带来机会，同时会审慎承销并控制资本承诺；摩根大通称AI融资需求和项目储备仍活跃，交易节奏受估值和市场条件影响。
X·宏观AI 评分2424 And of course read my blog on this too ...
And of course read my blog on this too ... One can debate whether China is so far from internal balance that its trading partners should turn a blind eye to its evident undervaluation and growing external surplus. But one cannot debate whether the exchange rate matters!
X·宏观AI 评分1818 一个X账户的内容，引来的老马和老黄的点赞、评论甚至转发，对于大部分人来说不仅是巨大的曝光量，还有巨大的成就感。短短一周@Bqlsj2023和@_FORAB两位都相继解锁成就。这也是几天聊到的：过去两年…
一个X账户的内容，引来的老马和老黄的点赞、评论甚至转发，对于大部分人来说不仅是巨大的曝光量，还有巨大的成就感。短短一周@Bqlsj2023和@_FORAB两位都相继解锁成就。这也是几天聊到的：过去两年内三个大事件和一个趋势，让X平台在政治、地缘、科技AI和金融这些高度重视时效的领域，越来越成为全球范 https://t.co/okW1ekOEpW 引用 @qinbafrank：三个大事件和一个趋势，让X平台在政治、地缘、科技AI和金融这些高度重视时效的领域，越来越成为全球范围内的信息中心，也越来越成为全球最有影响力的社交媒体平台（没有之一）。三个大事件：24年美国总统大选、25年关税战、26
X·宏观AI 评分1111 Great great story! How does DD have only 15K followers. Scroll his feed. Follow him. Definetly one…
Great great story! How does DD have only 15K followers. Scroll his feed. Follow him. Definetly one of the guys I discuss markets with most on this entire hellscape. Deep experience and posts critical info daily. 引用 @DerivativesDon：It’s April 2008 - Last Lehman Macro Conference Things I rememb
X·宏观AI 评分1616 微软上次财报到现在，前半段硬件涨很好，有人问我微软为何那么弱？我说财报后大涨横盘不回调已经很强了。
微软上次财报到现在，前半段硬件涨很好，有人问我微软为何那么弱？我说财报后大涨横盘不回调已经很强了。 还是那个问题，持股没有耐心，看到别的板块涨，自己手里的不动就忍不住。现在硬件回调，手里拿硬件的可能又觉得软件香饽饽了。 引用 @TJ_Research：$MSFT 再有一个月就又要发财报了😀今年期待ATH
X·宏观AI 评分00 Incredible show btw. I was struck by what a thoroughly victorious career they've had. After having…
Incredible show btw. I was struck by what a thoroughly victorious career they've had. After having been cast out of the industry for criticizing the Iraq War/Bush, they regained huge commercial success. And all their critics basically claim to have been on their side all along. 引用 @TheStalwart：Firs
X·宏观AI 评分77 I highly recommend watching his videos on money and banking. One of the few people capable of…
I highly recommend watching his videos on money and banking. One of the few people capable of talking about not just financial market plumbing, but also why you should care. https://t.co/XC36gMMiKn
X·宏观AI 评分44 Sometimes it's the person not being right for the job, but more broadly the weirder the situation…
Sometimes it's the person not being right for the job, but more broadly the weirder the situation gets, the harder it is to be the one to stand up there and try to explain why things aren't weird. https://t.co/mrVeRDoudU 引用 @atrupar：this is an SNL cold open come to life. she can barely read https:/
X·财经博主AI 评分22 This is a step backwards. The red background was at least distinctive. What are we doing here?
This is a step backwards. The red background was at least distinctive. What are we doing here? 引用 @BetaProfiles：iOS 27.2 Beta 4 redesigns the Apple Music app icon. https://t.co/AbslExrYVC
X·财经博主AI 评分4444 数据中心容量预测比较：GW假设对实验室收入与支出的含义
图表分析不同数据中心容量假设对实验室收入和支出的含义，依据包括公司披露、公开报道和示例情景。文中引用的估算显示，2026年美国数据中心增长规模约为10—21 GW（按IT口径），不同估值跨度超过两倍。
X·宏观AI 评分2121 BILL ACKMAN买奈飞，卖奈飞，又买入，是一个很好的验证投资理念的过程。从他的分享可以学到很多投资的理念。今晚看的第三个采访😂
BILL ACKMAN买奈飞，卖奈飞，又买入，是一个很好的验证投资理念的过程。从他的分享可以学到很多投资的理念。今晚看的第三个采访😂 https://t.co/C08hcJJmxE
X·宏观AI 评分1717 每隔一段时间我可能都得重复一下我自己的理念，仅供参考。
每隔一段时间我可能都得重复一下我自己的理念，仅供参考。 板块，个股的基本面不值得天天聊，短期除非重大事件，不然不大会有基本面改变，价格的波动会出现一些减仓加仓的机会。 引用 @adakk2716701：@TJ_Research talk君，请问cpu您目前怎么看，amd和arm
X·宏观AI 评分99 The Journal story suggested that rapid debt growth was somehow leading to export dependence (I…
The Journal story suggested that rapid debt growth was somehow leading to export dependence (I guess b/c exports and debt are both going up) -- but I think that is a bit confused. Exports are up b/c property lending and property investment tanked (1) and because the real
X·宏观AI 评分1010 Expand the scale on the right hand side to 0%-" 100% and it becomes boring. Who gives a crap about…
Expand the scale on the right hand side to 0%-" 100% and it becomes boring. Who gives a crap about whether l/s equity funds are between 48-56% net long. If they ran 48% all year vs 56% all year as of today they would have made 1.2% more. 引用 @eliant_capital：The definition of frustration in a char
X·宏观AI 评分99 Really worrisome article. Not only is China galloping ahead in important industries, but they're…
Really worrisome article. Not only is China galloping ahead in important industries, but they're also getting better and better at scamming. The west urgently needs a plan to nurture our own domestic scam ecosystem. https://t.co/ME6CnzSBJI
X·宏观AI 评分1515 大盘离新高很近，情绪面却这么低，到底承担了什么样的风险？
大盘离新高很近，情绪面却这么低，到底承担了什么样的风险？ https://t.co/eUe9PcW1TT
X·宏观AI 评分2323 At #NABE2026, discusses “vibepression”
At #NABE2026, @KevRGordon discusses “vibepression” 1️⃣ Cumulative inflation 2️⃣ Miserable expectations 3️⃣ « Strange » and uneven labor market 4️⃣ Profits for thee, not for me 5️⃣ Net worth in driver’s seat ⚠️ New normal: higher speed limit and higher deficit https://t.co/yqRpQTYsIq
X·财经博主AI 评分3434 Something that blows my mind is the variance of the estimates we're still seeing for data center…
Something that blows my mind is the variance of the estimates we're still seeing for data center capacity. We’re already in mid-October and the selected estimates for 2026 US data-center growth still span roughly 10–21 GW on an IT basis. A range more than 2x for the year we’re https://t.co/VL1dm0sQw
X·宏观AI 评分1313 2000年互联网泡沫破裂，科技股持续了很长时间的低迷。核心不是泡沫，而是2000年前后的互联网都没找到商业模式，从00年一直到06、07年
2000年互联网泡沫破裂，科技股持续了很长时间的低迷。核心不是泡沫，而是2000年前后的互联网都没找到商业模式，从00年一直到06、07年 引用 @market_sleuth：“Too big to fail. Active trading isn’t needed anymore. In fact it’s more of a waste of time.” Those were the words I heard as I was speaking with a finance person yesterday who is way smarter than I & who mana
X·宏观AI 评分2424 We are coming off a curious week of economic and financial dualism ... and are now looking at a…
We are coming off a curious week of economic and financial dualism ... and are now looking at a packed one featuring US inflation data, lots of other global releases, and the IMF-World Bank annual meetings. For details, please use one of the following links to read my Weekly Look https://t.co/iuRLp9
X·宏观AI 评分3939 3/ She prefers "smaller, more frequent" moves to avoid bigger hikes later.
3/ She prefers "smaller, more frequent" moves to avoid bigger hikes later. Her neutral-rate estimate is among the Fed's highest, and she says if she's wrong, it's too low. Also, higher yields are "absolutely not" a substitute for Fed hikes https://t.co/Amj2pqRriQ
X·宏观AI 评分3333 Mag7应该叫“Mag700”，这个观点还挺有意思。核心是当前美股“缺乏广度”（主要由Mag 7等少数大票推动）不必过度担心，原因有两点：
Mag7应该叫“Mag700”，这个观点还挺有意思。核心是当前美股“缺乏广度”（主要由Mag 7等少数大票推动）不必过度担心，原因有两点： 引用 @EricBalchunas：The Stock Market Is Currently Out of Breadth But It's No Reason to Worry.. new from me on the latest worry being hurled at investors from the columnist class and what they aren't telling you: 1) over past 100 ye