X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号。按时间排，不论是否入选精选。
Bottom -- very little has so far flowed into the US bond market (to fund either the borrowing to build the data centers that use the chips or the US fiscal deficit) ... but it isn't clear that the old equity outflows offsetting the surplus equilibrium will persist going forward
昨晚30年期美债拍卖数据整体表现也是很不错的，超出市场预期，有效缓解了市场对美国长端美债需求疲软的担忧。具体拍卖数据如下： 1、得标利率 5.618%高于预发行利率（5.618%与预发行利率基本持平，未出现明显的尾部利差），创下2000年以来的最高水平，反映出投资者对长端美债要求较高的风险补偿。 引用 @qinbafrank：昨晚的十年期美债拍卖结果是一个好的信号： 1）美国390亿美元10年期国债拍卖中标收益率5.3%，低于预发行利率、即市场定价预期； 2）认购倍数2.77倍明显高于过去六次平卖平均的2.54倍； https://t.co/LTLpBuH9Bw
Correlation between 10y yield and S&P 500 remains deeply negative (more so when yields rise on the day) https://t.co/GnyMtCzoZX
Druck now. Bloomberg Bro Asymetric information The House. Arrogant prick in despair @SecScottBessent https://t.co/Ps8Vtz5VVA 引用 @RealNickMugalli：Treasury secretary Bessent confirms that Stan Druckenmiller lost a bunch of money like citadel securities shorting bonds… He also acknowledged his old s
As French yields continue to climb and pull other European yields higher, there's a question on many people's minds: What is the circuit breaker, and when does it kick in? Is it endogenous? If so, we are likely still a ways away from its trigger point, especially given how
Financing costs rose in August … average interest rate on credit cards with assessed interest reached 22.36%; average interest rate on a 5-year new car loan rose to 7.54% https://t.co/rZQamsF40o
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells Fox's @IngrahamAngle that he hopes the Fed will keep an "open mind" on rate hikes and consider the example of the 1990s and Greenspan. What's interesting about this oft-cited analogy is that there's the 1996-97 Greenspan who resisted hiking https://t.co/xSQ2dV
美联储理事沃勒表示，若经济数据继续符合预期，他预计还会加息，以支持通胀更及时地回到2%的目标；他同时称，加息时点有一定灵活性。原文链接：https://t.co/rjvidGfLRW
I've been making the case for bonds. If this cover cannot convince you that it's time for bonds, I cannot help you anymore!! @donnelly_brent https://t.co/v1tYd6DX9G 引用 @biancoresearch：For years, yields were below where the economy said they should be. That is no longer the case. https://t.co/m60E
Write a few 1000 words on adding bonds to a long portfolio. Within say I'm tactically short bonds through 9/30. Cover well. Go max long for alpha a bit above current level using a complicated options strategy recognizing the vol implications of the CTD flip. And people think
Interactive guide to our weekly #BalanceSheet report: https://t.co/75xiVY3BGu #FedData
European government bond yields continue their upward march this morning. #economy #bonds #markets #europe https://t.co/KfLauyCVqH
美国390亿美元十年期国债拍卖中标收益率为5.3%，低于预发行利率所反映的市场定价预期。认购倍数为2.77倍，高于过去六次平卖平均的2.54倍。引用内容称，拍卖前市场关注收益率向5.4%上行及拍卖吸收情况，并讨论了出现明显 auction tail 或 stop-through 和强 indirect 的两种情形。
This sharp rise in UK gilt yields—with the 10-year up another 7 bps this morning to 5.45%—further complicates an already difficult UK budget formulation. Indeed, this may well be the toughest fiscal formulation challenge in years. #economy #markets #uk #budget #yields https://t.co/6VxoJZp7uD
Nice concession building into 39BN of 10's and 22BN of 30's in the next 30 hours
Following up on the earlier UK budget note: The 30-year gilt yield now carries a 6% handle, reaching its highest level in 28 years. #economy #markets #bonds #uk #yields https://t.co/XExmwZVA4b
Wrote about this earlier this week, but I think the heart of the bond selloff is basically countries and companies (hyperscalers) have no choice but to keep borrowing, and investors suddenly have a lot more options about what to put their money in. https://t.co/zy1bsbnNAY https://t.co/9FhJRqdMax
Correlation between 10y yield and S&P 500 remains deeply negative (stronger inverse correlation when yields have fallen) https://t.co/GQpmw1D0ux
Interesting post. The move he suggests would be a further shift to mercantilism and would be declaring economic war with the U.S. 引用 @DannyDayan5：Nationalism has made the world more expensive. Europe and their bond markets have been the most negatively impacted. There are actions policymakers ca
美国30年期固定房贷合同利率升至7.49%，为2023年11月以来最高。过去3周利率上涨约50个基点，增幅为2023年初以来最快。
US10y收益率从5.3%向5.4%攀升，资产受到压制，凌晨一点的十年期美债拍卖被视为今晚重要的价格事件之一。若高收益率仍需明显auction tail才能吸收，长债压力可能升温；若出现明显stop-through和强indirect，正文未完，具体判断不完整。
8月消费者信贷年化增长1.9%，其中循环信贷下降4.2%，非循环信贷增长4.1%。
question for econ/finance: 1. what's the strongest case that AI is behind the increase in treasury rates? 2. what's the strongest case that AI is behind the rise in inflation?
I really think everyone over-complicates this. There’s a lot of spending right now, a decent chunk of which is related to AI. (all) Spending puts upward pressure on prices. To counteract upward price pressure, the Fed keeps rates high. Treasuries reflect Fed policy. 引用 @DKThomp：question for
And here it was explained, three and a half years earlier, why inflation remains unfixed, fiscal dominance is more in the news, and ultimately, nothing stops this train. 引用 @LynAldenContact：Most of the hawks don't take into account the fiscal-driven inflation situation or sovereign bond liquidity.
Good morning. Europe is facing higher government bond yields yet again. France, now the "high beta" economy yield-wise, is leading a regional rise that increasingly reflects a two-way dynamic with US Treasuries (albeit with varying sensitivities). #economy #bonds #yields #markets https://t.co/o1Vdac
Context to the escalating selloff in French bonds: more policy uncertainty lowers the actual debt threshold at which defaults become a more likely occurrence, according to this paper. 引用 @GonHuertas：When public debt grows, default risk can jump suddenly. Our new paper with @ojblanchard1 and @pmbru
119BN of 3's 10's and 30's for sale over the next 3 days
华尔街有疫情一整套的交易走势应对逻辑，市场怕的是不确定性，比起鼠疫，美债的不确定性现在对市场来说更大，位置在几十年的未知领域 引用 @bobby79446955：@TJ_Research 怎么看鼠疫
债券现在被极度挤压，波动率高，我不知道会不会有消息，什么时候有消息。但美股估值的SET UP，如果利率下跌，SPX再涨5%+我都不会感到意外，甚至估值有10%的上涨空间，把情绪面带到乐观，可能年底我又要喊降BETA了🤣🤣🤣一年一个轮回
The TIC (US capital flow) data is lagged and there isn't any number for August yet. The last strong print for Treasuries was in May; June and July were weak. But it sure looks like the world wants to finance San Francisco much than it wants to finance DC right now 2/2 https://t.co/yfjkrSBup4
IS THE BOND MARKET PRICING IN A NEW GLOBAL HEGEMON? In the newsletter (inspired by our conversation with @CarolinPflueger) I wrote about the huge spread between US and Chinese sovereign borrowing costs, and what it might imply about a shifting balance of geopolitical power. https://t.co/koH2ow8LCn
30 year TIPS at 3.4% is an amazing way to preserve wealth IMO. https://t.co/NjK2WFdDZq
Good morning. From the FT: "A sharp sell-off in US government bonds is starting to reverberate across corporate America, forcing companies to overhaul their borrowing plans and even raising the spectre of defaults among the most lowly rated businesses." Remember the historical https://t.co/tzvwm7W2N
Speaking of higher borrowing costs and vulnerable sectors: This from the front page of today's WSJ.👇 #economy #markets #housing #bonds #yields #mortgages @WSJ https://t.co/wolgoOZkpY
This chart isn't likely to get better over the next 4 years as interest rates still fell 170 bp from 2016-2020. So perhaps we look at bond in a forward looking way instead of this silly way https://t.co/Gg7iKvHJ1F
Again if you start from the premise that having the most advanced AI is a matter of national security — clearly a view that’s held by many in DC and SF — then the right policy to tame inflation is not to raise rates, but to raise taxes on everything except datacenters. 引用 @colbyLsmith：NEW w/ @benca
This was a really interesting discussion about surging bond yields 引用 @business：On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, @CarolinPflueger joins @tracyalloway and @TheStalwart to discuss why Treasury and global bond yields have been surging and what central banks have to do to make bonds more “bo
A few days ago, I argued that excessive debt wasn't driving yields higher (link). The repost is my argument for why yields are moving higher, and why they are no longer expensive. https://t.co/AcrblgHGGS 引用 @biancoresearch：For years, yields were below where the economy said they should be. That i
For years, yields were below where the economy said they should be. That is no longer the case. https://t.co/m60EDhxYGD