美国就业数据疲软后，美债市场如何反应
美国就业数据疲软后，交易员下调对美联储加息的预期，推动2年期美债收益率继续回落。下一个重要数据催化剂是10月14日公布的CPI通胀数据。
#海外/地缘
X（推特）上的财经、科技与宏观账号。按时间排，不论是否入选精选。
X·宏观AI 评分4747 X·宏观AI 评分1010 Great to join with to discuss the latest #jobsreport, #diesel prices, economic trends and what this…
Great to join @NYSE with @KristenScholer to discuss the latest #jobsreport, #diesel prices, economic trends and what this all means for the #Fed's next rate decision via @EYnews @EY_Parthenon https://t.co/cJQZJ88htZ 引用 @NYSE：Today on NYSE Live: @parisingh, @flowenghq @keithirizarry, @MLBNetwork+@E
X·宏观AI 评分2323 The so-called prime-age labor force participation rate remains near two-decade highs.
The so-called prime-age labor force participation rate remains near two-decade highs. https://t.co/biN6q6zifD
X·宏观AI 评分2020 ⚠️The labor force participation rate is rebounding from historically low levels -- primarily driven…
⚠️The labor force participation rate is rebounding from historically low levels -- primarily driven by a rebound in participation amongst the younger cohorts <24yo. Ageing and early retirements are still a major drag on LF participation rate. https://t.co/CRcCvYIII0
X·宏观AI 评分3131 🚨Income erosion
🚨Income erosion We've long established the labor market is non-inflationary, but with real wage growth having been negative for the last 6-months that represents a cap on consumer spending growth https://t.co/IjrXx3L6PQ
X·宏观AI 评分3131 This ho-hum labor market report doesn't really change the story for the Fed, whose senior officials…
This ho-hum labor market report doesn't really change the story for the Fed, whose senior officials had gone out of their way this week to signal that an October rate hike probably wasn't their base-case. The biggest development was what it didn't show: few signs from wages or https://t.co/6GY9Ud2Q
X·宏观AI 评分1414 Part of the institutional backdrop that helps explain limited foreign demand for Treasuries even as…
Part of the institutional backdrop that helps explain limited foreign demand for Treasuries even as the US borrowing need hovers around 6 pp of GDP. Treasuries aren't just competing with bunds and JGBs; governments are evaluating the risk/ reward of Treasuries relative to
X·宏观AI 评分1919 The Economist's Free Exchange column highlights how state investors have lost interest in…
The Economist's Free Exchange column highlights how state investors have lost interest in conventional reserve assets (read Treasuries) and have joined the rest of the world in reaching for yield ... 1/3 https://t.co/zcO4YhdyST
X·宏观AI 评分1111 In a shocking turn of events, this time I completely agree with David and tweeted the math broadly.
In a shocking turn of events, this time I completely agree with David and tweeted the math broadly. 引用 @DavidZervosDC：In the @ftopinion article below, @martinwolf_ claims that the average maturity of US Treasury issuance decreased from 6.1 years in 2024 to 2.5 years in 2026. He should check his mat
X·宏观AI 评分2424 Today, Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control’s (OFAC) designations expose a multi-year scheme…
Today, Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control’s (OFAC) designations expose a multi-year scheme that moved more than $2 million to Hamas through sham charities and cryptocurrency. OFAC designated a member of Hamas’s military wing, along with two France-based individuals and
X·宏观AI 评分77 Understanding BLS Unemployment Statistics #JobsReport #BLSdata
Understanding BLS Unemployment Statistics https://t.co/UqFR54oYCZ #JobsReport #BLSdata
X·宏观AI 评分99 This is a good example of domestic political considerations and geopolitical pressures driving an…
This is a good example of domestic political considerations and geopolitical pressures driving an economic policy decision in this era of geo-economics. Releasing these strategic reserves helps partially shield consumers from soaring prices, but it’s also a high-stakes, https://t.co/AXLFDWGQQn
X·宏观AI 评分1818 I amplified the IIF's number on the change in the maturity structure of issuance that Wolf used…
I amplified the IIF's number on the change in the maturity structure of issuance that Wolf used, and it doesn't seem to check out. That said, I do think net bill issuance is poised to jump again -- the 4qs to q2 2026 are a temporary low https://t.co/ZFXi6F35Hj 引用 @DavidZervosDC：In the @ftopinion a
X·宏观AI 评分2121 . and held a fireside chat during the U.S.-Japan-South Korea Trilateral Executive Dialogue at the…
.@SecScottBessent and @SenatorHagerty held a fireside chat during the U.S.-Japan-South Korea Trilateral Executive Dialogue at the Milken Institute. Secretary Bessent highlighted how Japanese and Korean investment supports American jobs, critical supply chains, and strategic https://t.co/6uR9twSrf6
X·宏观AI 评分4949 市场对美联储近期政策行动的定价本周大幅调整
过去3天，市场对美联储10月下一次FOMC会议加息的定价概率从70%降至23%。原文提到12月，但内容未完。
X·宏观AI 评分2121 NEW: The White House finds that seven policies in the Democratic Socialists of America’s 2026…
NEW: The White House finds that seven policies in the Democratic Socialists of America’s 2026 program would add about $49 trillion to federal deficits over ten years. That is roughly $355,000 for every American household. https://t.co/lSn7ZxLcZZ https://t.co/4MsqPKsVN4
X·宏观AI 评分3030 Blanche tells Bloomberg News he isn't reopening a criminal investigation into former Fed Chair…
Blanche tells Bloomberg News he isn't reopening a criminal investigation into former Fed Chair Jerome Powell for cost overruns on its buildings But he said that if the Fed's own internal audit of the project finds evidence of wrongdoing, the DOJ could investigate
X·宏观AI 评分1818 Notes on the Data have been added for the following as-of-date: July 1, 2026, and revised for the…
Notes on the Data have been added for the following as-of-date: July 1, 2026, and revised for the following as-of-dates: April 2, 2025; July 2, 2025; October 1, 2025; December 31, 2025; and April 1, 2026. Data on this H.8 release have been benchmarked through the June 2026 Call
X·宏观AI 评分1414 France is the Biggest Loser in the Global Rates Reset
France is the Biggest Loser in the Global Rates Reset https://t.co/NchvzzAr0W In much of the rich world, the uptick in the cost of capital corresponds to a relatively benign change in (nominal) growth trajectories. This is less true for Europe, and especially for France. https://t.co/z1NrI86j10
X·宏观AI 评分2020 Trump says he’s not satisfied with media coverage that relied on the statements of his own attorney…
Trump says he’s not satisfied with media coverage that relied on the statements of his own attorney general that suggested the DOJ is done investigating the Fed building renovations. He restates his unhappiness with former Fed chair Powell. https://t.co/LH8IxiUnoW 引用 @NickTimiraos：Blanche tells Blo
X·宏观AI 评分3636 A manufacturing surplus somewhere north of 4 trillion, a customs surplus north of $2.5 trillion --
A manufacturing surplus somewhere north of 4 trillion, a customs surplus north of $2.5 trillion -- Basically, China's current trajectory, with sustained 10% growth in export volumes and a more modest but still pronounced increase in the surplus in manufactures https://t.co/jtfRvKoQCG 引用 @Balding
X·财经博主AI 评分1515 7/7 Since the Fed didn't listen and kept cutting rates, yields🚀.
7/7 Since the Fed didn't listen and kept cutting rates, yields🚀. If the Fed continues to defy the market by refraining from hiking later this month, could we see more🚀? - "Bond traders will stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking." Start panicking Fed/Williams!
X·财经博主AI 评分2929 6/7 The 2024 to 2026 CUTTING cycle (orange) saw HIGHER bond yields (blue).
6/7 The 2024 to 2026 CUTTING cycle (orange) saw HIGHER bond yields (blue). This is the first time in 50+ years CUTS saw HIGHER yields. I've argued this was the market sending the Fed a message that they were too easy. Short rates (funds/repo/bills) needed to be higher. https://t.co/jlKJCFXDWH
X·财经博主AI 评分2929 1/7 tl:dr - This week, Fedspeak said "no urgency" to hike in October.
1/7 tl:dr - This week, Fedspeak said "no urgency" to hike in October. Payrolls helped this narrative. The bond market is signaling unhappiness with this potential outcome. "Bond Traders can stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking." 🧵
X·财经博主AI 评分2828 7/8 Combined government and corporate interest costs are now 3.8% of GDP.
7/8 Combined government and corporate interest costs are now 3.8% of GDP. This is the highest since 2008 but only slightly above the 65-year average of 3.5%, and well below the 1990 peak of 5.9%. https://t.co/1yMiXhMsQT
X·财经博主AI 评分2020 1/8 Is Too Much Debt the Reason Bond Yields are Heading Higher?
1/8 Is Too Much Debt the Reason Bond Yields are Heading Higher? -- My argument for why this case is overstated. (It's a problem, but a secondary one.) 🧵 https://t.co/zBzpq4Mada