美联储纽约联储主席威廉姆斯称今年适宜再加息一次,预计2027年无需进一步加息
美联储纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示,今年再加息一次是适宜的,但他认为2027年没有必要进一步加息。
外媒与科技媒体长文、研究号文章。按时间排,不论是否入选精选。
美联储纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示,今年再加息一次是适宜的,但他认为2027年没有必要进一步加息。
Ed Yardeni表示,他认为利率已“回归正常”,而非“更高更久”,并谈及他对S&P的观点。美国及其他发达经济体收益率升至数十年高位,收紧金融条件;自9月中旬以来,八个主要经济体利率互换定价中的加息幅度减少近200个基点。
Goolsbee says AI-induced inflation is 'jumping out of its lane,' Semafor reports Reuters
IMF flags risks to global economy from AI market correction, war and debt Reuters
Blackstone总裁Jon Gray和美联储理事Christopher Waller表示,法国的财政压力为支出较高的政府敲响警钟。两人认为,由于美国经济增长高得多,这些风险在美国不那么紧迫。
Fund upgrades UK’s GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.3%, but says it is likely to edge down next yearIMF warns global economy ‘could soon test the limits of resilience’John Healey should “stay the course” and continue repairing the UK’s public finances, the International Monetary Fund’s top economis
With UK bond yields recently racking up fresh multi-decade highs, new Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey can seize on a crumb of comfort ahead of a tricky first budget later this month.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the surge in long-term US Treasury yields is helping to curb demand in interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as housing and automobiles, doing some of the work of tighter monetary policy.
"Economic and financial stability is your first line of defense," IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said at an IMF event in Bangkok, urging debt-laden advanced economies to put their fiscal house in order and choose trade diversification over protectionism. (Source: Bloomberg)
EXCLUSIVE: Banking watchdogs ramp up AI scrutiny as stability fears mount, sources say Reuters
IMF总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃警告,AI在支撑全球增长的同时,可能影响年轻人进入劳动力市场并沿职业阶梯晋升的机会。IMF估计,AI将影响全球约40%的工作岗位,发达经济体约为60%;她提出政府需要重新思考税收和教育,以应对劳动力市场结构变化。
Stress at long end of US yield curve appears to be moving towards short-term lending markets, threatening to complicate life for the Fed
日本批发通胀仍处高位,市场对日本央行加息的预期仍在。
IMF警告,AI股票价格下跌若波及全球市场,可能威胁世界金融稳定。其半年刊《全球金融稳定报告》将AI公司估值偏高和债务增加列为系统风险上升的原因,并提到政府借款和网络攻击风险。
今年,美债市场突破了一道重要的心理关口,不同期限美债收益率升至数十年来未见的水平,且暂无放缓迹象。
Betsy Duke, Former Fed governor and Former Wells Fargo Chair, says investors should pay closest attention to Fed officials’ comments this week. She argues that a single economic data point is unlikely to shift the outlook significantly, noting that Kevin Morris has emphasized watching trends rather
克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克表示,条件允许时,政策调整宜幅度较小、频率较高,以帮助通胀预期保持稳定。她没有明确支持本月加息。
Boomers report more financial confidence as Federal Reserve and JPMorgan data show older households hold more wealth and draw more from investments.
克利夫兰联储主席哈马克表示,可能需要更紧缩的货币政策来降低通胀。
克利夫兰联储主席Beth Hammack表示,较小且更频繁的政策调整有助于保持通胀预期稳定,但她没有明确支持本月加息。
Tina Fordham在彭博《Open Interest》节目中分析特朗普与俄罗斯达成的意外柴油交易、泽连斯基提出的能源停火要求,以及乌克兰和沙特遭遇的新袭击。节目还讨论了这些事件对油价、市场以及美国与俄罗斯关系的意义。
Citi Research美国经济学家Veronica Clark指出,人工智能以外的经济活动正在放缓。她认为,通胀小幅上升可能使美联储在10月和12月维持利率不变。
Productivity gains from AI could help offset Asia's ageing population problem, IMF says Reuters
A troubling rise in prices might trigger an interest-rate move at the Fed’s meeting in late October.
A bust of Swedish chemist, engineer, inventor, businessman, and philanthropist Alfred Nobel (1833-1896) is pictured outside the Norwegian Nobel Institute in Oslo, Norway on January 8, 2026. Jonathan Nackstrand | Afp | Getty Images U.S. economists Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford were on Monday aw
Announcement follows diesel deal with Putin as US president tries to contain impact of higher fuel costs ahead of election
文章梳理地缘冲击、通胀预期重定价、杠杆交易去化与财政及政治风险定价之间的传导,并称本轮债市压力的焦点已转向欧元区财政与政治风险。文中列出法德利差约150bp、法国10年期OAT收益率逼近5%,并将其与2012年峰值约153bp及2011年11月峰值189–200bp比较;文中行情数据为10月5–6日市场快照。
美国柴油全国均价约为每加仑6.277美元,较高点6.528美元回落,但仍同比高71%;美国原油价格同比上涨56%。文章称,自5月以来,10年期美国国债收益率与柴油价格的相关性首次高于与原油价格的相关性。
推荐理由:文章比较柴油与原油价格和美债收益率的联动变化,并列出美国柴油税延期及俄方供油安排的规模与时间。
Equity option traders will be looking for the market to break out of its inertia as tech company earnings collide with a Federal Reserve meeting and US midterm elections.
凯文·沃什在杰克逊霍尔释放鹰派信号后,美国国债收益率上行,债券市场抛售扩大。30年期美债收益率升至2002年以来高位,10年期收益率在9月升至约5.3%;文章还估算了债市波动对银行未实现损失和住房市场的影响。
Market Questions is the FT’s guide to the week ahead
Higher gasoline prices probably led to quicker overall US inflation in September even as underlying price pressures moderated, supporting views that the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising interest rates this month.
文章称,特朗普宣布一项从俄罗斯购买225万桶柴油的协议,但这一规模相当于约16小时的美国柴油消费量;作者认为,该交易不会影响全球能源市场或柴油价格。文章还提到,美国炼油厂日产柴油约520万桶、国内日消费约370万桶,俄罗斯2025年柴油出口约81.7万桶/日;乌克兰方面估计,到2026年夏末已使俄罗斯43%的炼油产能停摆。
Kremlin says Putin in phone call with Trump downplays immediate Ukraine talks resumption Reuters
Democrats in Congress are asking the FBI director to cancel the reported trip.
Data: Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances; Chart: Neil Irwin/AxiosMiddle- and lower-earners' inflation-adjusted incomes rose during the Biden years — but high earners saw their incomes fall.That's a surprising finding from one of the most thorough datasets on American household finances, rel
Trump要求委员会报告是否有理由免去美联储Lisa Cook的职务。Cook尚未被刑事起诉。
Treasuries slipped at the end of the week as still-elevated energy costs stoked concern about inflation and backed expectations for further Federal Reserve interest-rate increases.
Trump to hold inquiry into Fed's Lisa Cook at White House Reuters
特朗普宣布设立委员会调查美联储理事丽莎·库克涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈的指控,并研究是否有理由将其免职。白宫定于5 November举行闭门听证,过程将被记录并公开;库克可以提交书面陈述和证据,并接受白宫及其律师的问询。报道提到,美国最高法院此前裁定特朗普解雇库克违宪。